January 30, 2024 - Update for the Week of January 20

Update for the Week of January 20

January 30, 2024

The latest CDC Covid report for the week ending January 20 shows a significant decline in new hospital admissions for Alabama as well as the United States. After rising for nine consecutive weeks starting in early November, new hospitalizations in the United States peaked on January 6, 2024 at 34,876. They have now declined for two successive weeks. In the latest report, there were 26,607 new admissions in the U.S., a 14% decline compared to the prior week.

Likewise, in Alabama there were 402 new admissions for the week of January 20, a 14.3% decline from the prior week. This is Alabama’s second consecutive weekly decline after reaching a peak of 528 new hospitalizations during the week of January 6. On a per capita basis, there were 8.2 new admissions per 100K population in Alabama, which is comparable to the national average of 8.01 per 100K. 

As I pointed out last week, this continuing improvement is consistent with historical precedent. In each of the last three winter seasons, Covid-related hospitalizations peaked in early-to-mid-January and then rapidly declined before leveling off in April. Though expert epidemiologists have expressed different opinions on whether the SARS-CoV-2 virus can be said to simulate the seasonal characteristics of certain other viruses, such as the flu, I find it hard to believe that this clear annual pattern is just a coincidence.

The wastewater data for the week of January 20 also supports the notion that the winter Covid surge in the United States and the Southern region is subsiding. Viral activity in those wastewater plants being monitored nationally declined from 9 to 7 compared to the prior week, while those in the South declined from 11 to 10. In Alabama, however, the story is different. Only five plants in Alabama are being monitored and all of them are in Jefferson County. The viral activity in those five plants actually increased from 11 to 13. We’ll have to await next week’s report to see if that increase amounts to statistical noise. 

It’s important to emphasize that, even though we are seeing some improvement in the incidence of severe cases, that doesn’t mean we should completely disregard the risk. To quote Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, “... that’s like throwing away your umbrella in a rainstorm because you are not getting wet." 

There are three important points to keep in mind: (1) as the new dominant strain JN.1 has demonstrated, this virus continues to mutate at a high level; (2) the odds of transmission confirmed by a positive COVID-19 test are directly proportionate to exposure duration - 15 minutes of continuous exposure is the threshold after which there's a meaningful chance of getting sick; and (3) the odds of developing long Covid symptoms increase with each successive infection, and over half of long Covid patients suffer persistent cognitive slowing, such as “brain fog”. 

For those reasons alone, I urge you to stay current on your vaccinations and remain vigilant. Of course, vigilance can mean different things to different people, depending on your circumstances and degree of vulnerability. For example, though I typically don’t wear a mask when attending to my daily routines, I invariably do so when flying on an airplane. I recognize that practice places me in a distinct minority, but for me, the potential benefits outweigh the slight discomfort. I hope you find the CDC Covid tracking data that I attempt to explain helpful in making the decisions that are right for you.