January 3, 2021
It is the final day of the strangest holiday period I can remember. Few were in a mood to celebrate during a week when the United States passed 20 million cases (over 21 million today) and 350,000 deaths (over 358,000 today). The longer this pandemic continues, the more parallels are being drawn to the 1918 flu pandemic, which cost nearly 675,000 Americans their lives. Another sobering reality is that COVID has now killed more Americans than all the battlefield deaths in the Civil War (both sides), World War I, the Korean War and the Vietnam War, combined.
Yes, a strange holiday, indeed. Alabama’s COVID data are still distorted because many testing centers were closed yesterday. ADPH reported 2,476 new daily cases (incl. 429 probables) and 7,855 tests, resulting in a one-day positivity rate of 31.5%. The positivity rate over the last 7 days, according to BamaTracker is 42.2%. One more Alabamian reportedly died alone, separated from family.
Only 99 hospitals reported their patient loads but that did not prevent a new record for hospitalizations - 2,885, or 29.14 patients per hospital (also a new record). By Wednesday, when 105-110 hospitals will submit reports, we can expect that 3,000 to 3,200 COVID patients will be registered in Alabama hospitals.
So, the new year dawns as hospitals around the State, especially smaller regional ones, are stretched to the breaking point. East Alabama Medical Center in Opelika, which has 74 COVID patients, saw record numbers on back to back days last week. In Calhoun County, RMC Hospital is out of ICU beds and regular floor beds, as the Anniston facility now deals with 59 COVID patients. Athens-Limestone Hospital had 30 patients and just 2 available ICU beds last week, while Cullman Regional reported 70 COVID patients and 188% ICU occupancy.
As North Alabama struggles with the highest positivity and hospitalization rates in the State, it now must face another potential superspreader event tomorrow - an evening Trump rally in nearby Dalton, Georgia. The seat of Whitfield County, Georgia (120.3 cases per 100K - 13th highest of 159 counties), Dalton is located in Georgia’s northwest corner, just 32 miles from Hamilton County, Tennessee (home of Chattanooga) and less than 50 miles from the Alabama border.
A November study out of Stanford University found that 18 Trump campaign rallies have led to more than 30,000 confirmed coronavirus cases and likely led to more than 700 deaths. Researchers examined rallies held between June 20 and Sept. 22, only three of which were indoors. The researchers then compared spread of the virus in the counties where the rallies were held to counties that were on similar case trajectories before the rallies occurred.
The Dalton rally will draw plenty of Trump fans from Hamilton County, TN (111.7 cases per 100K - 10th highest of 95 counties) and DeKalb County, AL (53.2% positivity rate - 13th highest of 67 counties). That is an ominous prospect for Highlands Medical Center in Scottsboro, which already has 20 COVID patients and just 1 remaining ICU bed (92% ICU occupancy). The small community hospital can ill-afford this last parting gift from President Trump. The totals:
12/21 - 2380
12/22 - 4979
12/23 - 4758
12/24 - 4232
12/25 - 3625
12/26 - 1032
12/27 - 2170
12/28 - 2269
12/29 - 3907
12/30 - 5106
12/31 - 4406
1/1 - 4521
1/2 - 3711
1/3 - 2476
Following a familiar pattern, Jefferson County leads with 391 cases, followed by Madison County with 249 cases and Mobile County with 246 cases. Eighteen counties - more than one-quarter of Alabama’s counties - now have 14-day positivity rates over 50%, while 4 counties have rates over 60% - Henry (60.1%); Winston (61.6%); Marion (65.5%); and Walker, home of Jasper, Alabama (68.5%).