January 29, 2021
There is a lot to cover today, starting with the basic data. Alabama reported 2,848 cases (incl. 964 probables), 800 fewer cases than yesterday. That is close to the average of 3,000 cases per day that has prevailed for the latter half of January, suggesting that yesterday’s spike may not last. Johns Hopkins puts the State’s average positivity rate at 34.6% over the last 7 days, still the highest in the nation.
Hospitalizations continued to decline - 1,978 patients in 105 reporting hospitals, or 18.8 patients per hospital. It seems that the pressure on hospitals must be easing a bit since hospitalizations reached a peak of 29.65 patients per hospital 3 weeks ago. I am interested to learn if this conclusion is borne out when ICU occupancy data gets updated on Monday.
On the other hand, the deaths of 226 more Alabamians were made known today, ending the deadliest week, by far, of the pandemic. For the week, 1,080 deaths have been reported, almost 15% of the State’s 7,566 deaths overall. Deaths have risen 137% this week compared to last week, and we have suffered 22.2 deaths per 100K population, more than 50% higher than Arizona, which is the state with the 2nd highest weekly death rate in the nation.
The list of persons eligible to receive a vaccine is finally being expanded, on February 8, to include ADPH individuals aged 65 and older and all of the essential workers specifically identified in Group 1b. The list of industries in Group 1b is broad, including food and agriculture, manufacturing, education, the judiciary and clergy. Although state legislators are not mentioned in Group 1b, Dr. Harris decided to add them to the list without indicating why they are “essential”.
Altogether, over 1 million people will become newly eligible as a result of this expansion in addition to 1 million more who were already eligible. Only 323K doses have been administered so far, according to Dr. Harris, of which about 255K were first doses (5.2% of our population, lowest percentage in the nation) and 68K were second doses (0.9%, tied for 2nd lowest). The State expects to receive about 100,000 doses per week going forward. Meanwhile, although it’s been 6 weeks since we received our first vaccines, the State has yet to activate an on-line portal.
In other news, preliminary results of human trials for two new vaccines were made public - Johnson & Johnson and Novavax. In the case of J&J, the efficacy rate in the U.S. was 72% but only 56% in South Africa. In the case of Novavax, efficacy was near 90% in the U.S. and 50% in South Africa. These results confirm Moderna’s announcement earlier this week that its vaccine is also less efficacious against the South Africa variant, which made its first appearance in the U.S. yesterday in South Carolina.
There is a lot of concern about the South Africa variant but we should keep it in perspective. The efficacy of flu vaccines normally ranges between 40% and 60%. If the J&J and Novavax efficacy rates against the South Africa variant are in that range, then that is cause for optimism. What’s more, the J&J vaccine proved to be extremely effective in preventing severe cases of COVID - 85 percent in all of the countries where it was tested, including South Africa.
J&J expects to receive the FDA’s emergency use authorization before late February and will be able to distribute as many as 30 million doses soon thereafter. Novavax is not expected to be in position to seek authorization to distribute its vaccine in the U.S. until April or May. The totals:
1/16 - 3153
1/17 - 1917
1/18 - 1430
1/19 - 2515
1/20 - 3112
1/21 - 2881
1/22 - 3551
1/23 - 3355
1/24 - 1728
1/25 - 1839
1/26 - 2900
1/27 - 3177
1/28 - 3648
1/29 - 2848