January 27, 2021
Today’s data brought the alarming news that Alabama has suffered its 2nd consecutive record for reported deaths - 276 today after 234 yesterday. More than half of today’s deaths occurred this month, while most of the rest occurred in late December.
To be frank, we have seen an unparalleled parade of death in January. How bad has it been? Since the pandemic began, Alabama has recorded more than 150 COVID deaths on just 7 occasions, and each of the 7 occurred within the last 2 weeks. In fact, 7,172 Alabamians have died of COVID and fully one-third of them (2,345) have been reported in the last 2 weeks. Alabama has the highest per capita death rate in the country (18.3 per 100K) for the week, while Arizona is now a distant 2nd.
To be clear, deaths are the most lagging indicator. In other words, many deaths reported this month actually occurred earlier. However, December is already the deadliest month on record, and January is on track to surpass December. If there is hope of a respite, it can be found in the recent decline in hospitalizations. That trend continued today, as 2,122 patients were reported in 110 hospitals, an average of 19.3 patients per hospital. This is the first time that we have averaged fewer than 20 patients per hospital since December 9. And that is a very, very hopeful sign.
If deaths are the most lagging indicator, daily cases are the most leading indicator. On that front, Alabama has plateaued at a high level. Aside from unreliable weekend data, we have averaged 3,120 new cases every day since January 13. As if on cue, ADPH reported 3,177 more cases today (incl. 1,128 probables).
Over the same 2-week period, the daily average for tests has declined almost 20% - from roughly 9,800 tests per day to 8,000 per day. As a result, the State’s positivity rate has started to rise again - from a low of 28-30% on January 20 to 32-34% today. A high positivity rate is generally considered a key sign that positive cases are being undercounted and, unfortunately,, Alabama has the highest 7-day average positivity rate in the nation.
So, where do we go from here? There are only 2 tools in the toolbox - vaccinations and personal behavior (masks, etc.). In terms of vaccinations, ADPH’s updated dashboard shows that 280,000 doses have been administered out of 737,000 doses received (38.1%). Approximately 4.7% of our population has received one shot and 0.7% has received both shots, both of which are among the lowest in the nation. However, ADPH received a guarantee yesterday from the Biden administration that its supply of vaccines will increase by not less than 16% for the next 3 weeks. Last week,105,000 Alabamians received a shot, so the weekly total in Alabama should top 125,000 per week in the near term. After the Biden relief bill is approved by Congress, those weekly totals could rise.
We were warned the winter will be bleak. Up to 90,000 more Americans are expected to die of COVID in the next 4 weeks, which would take the death toll to half a million. On top of that, more contagious variants from the U.K., South Africa and Brazil are threatening to make matters worse. And, as so often happens in crises, the poorest among us will suffer the most.
Nevertheless, I remain hopeful. We have an administration that took office one week ago today. It understands the enormous stakes and is determined to do whatever it takes to expedite the largest and most aggressive vaccination initiative in human history. Until the vaccines reach us, the one thing we can control - our own personal behavior - will ultimately determine our fate. The totals:
1/14 - 3588
1/15 - 2945
1/16 - 3153
1/17 - 1917
1/18 - 1430
1/19 - 2515
1/20 - 3112
1/21 - 2881
1/22 - 3551
1/23 - 3355
1/24 - 1728
1/25 - 1839
1/26 - 2900
1/27 - 3177
The counties with the highest per capita cases over the last 7 days are almost all located in the BlackBelt - Clarke (146 per 100K), Hale (98 per 100K), Lowndes (90), Fayette (88), Bullock (86), Chambers (85), Marengo (85), Barbour (83), Escambia (82) and Wilcox (80) counties are suffering the most.