January 26, 2021
After a weekend break, there were 2,900 cases today (incl. 970 probables), close to the same level prior to the weekend. The one-day positivity rate was 41.7% and the average rate for the last 7 days is between 30.6% and 33.4%. According to Johns Hopkins, Alabama's 7-day positivity rate is well off its high in the mid-40’s earlier this month, but it is still the highest in the nation.
After 10 months of following the data in Alabama, I am not easily shocked. However, today’s record-shattering 234 deaths are stunning, and most of them occurred in December and January. Alabama now has the 2nd highest per capita death rate in the country for the last 7 days (15.8 per 100K population), just behind Arizona (17 per 100K).
The U.S. Dept of Health & Human Services updated its weekly ICU occupancy rates and Alabama hospitals led the nation for the 2nd consecutive week, averaging 95% occupancy. The national average is 79%. In the Birmingham area, the average is 93% for 9 listed hospitals, led by St. Vincent’s (102%). UAB Hospital is at 90%, while Huntsville Hospital is 95%. There are no available ICU beds available in Montgomery - every hospital is showing 100% occupancy. Mobile’s largest hospital, Mobile Infirmary, is 97% full, while Springhill Memorial is 108% and Thomas Hospital (Fairhope) is 91%. The ICU’s at regional hospitals in Anniston (99%), Gadsden (99%), Opelika (100%), Dothan (143%) and Cullman (203%) are all completely full.
With ICU occupancy rates at record highs, it is helpful that the pressure on COVID hospitalizations is gradually easing. On Friday, we were running an average of 23 patients. Today, ADPH reported 2,222 patients in 104 reporting hospitals, which equates to 21.4 patients per hospital. While the decline in hospitalizations may be due, in part, to a rise in deaths, that is not the primary cause. There have been fewer new hospitalizations recently - in fact, the 7-day average of new COVID patients has dropped from 368 per day on January 12 to just 224 today.
The race to vaccinate continues to crawl along - 5.9% of the U.S. population has now received one dose and 1.0% have received both doses. In Alabama, 4.6% of the population has received just one dose (47th in the nation), while 0.6% has received both doses (tied for last in the nation with GA & MS). It is noteworthy, however, that the State has reduced the number of doses that are sitting in storage. As of today, 49% of the State’s supply has been injected into arms (up from 21% on January 16).
Dr. Scott Harris of ADPH, and other states, have blamed the slow roll out on lack of vaccine supply. If so, help is on the way. This afternoon, President Biden announced a series of measures to increase supply to the states, including the purchase of 200 million more doses from Pfizer and Moderna, and an immediate increase in shipments from 8.6 million doses to a minimum of 10 million doses per week. With those additional doses, there will be enough to vaccinate 300 million people - almost the entire U.S. population.
Finally, tomorrow will mark 3 weeks since the violent insurrection in the U.S. Capitol. It is now clear the event was not only a deadly riot, but also another super spreader. The Washington Post has reported that 38 Capitol Police, 82 DC Metro Police and 150 National Guardsmen at the Capitol have tested positive since January 6. Of course, the insurrectionists did not have the decency to wear a mask; they were too busy seeking to overthrow the government. It is so fitting that their refusal to abide by this simple norm - wearing a mask - is the reason they can now be easily identified and arrested.
1/13 - 3147
1/14 - 3588
1/15 - 2945
1/16 - 3153
1/17 - 1917
1/18 - 1430
1/19 - 2515
1/20 - 3112
1/21 - 2881
1/22 - 3551
1/23 - 3355
1/24 - 1728
1/25 - 1839
1/26 - 2900
Mobile County led with 392 cases today, followed by Jefferson County with 279 cases and Madison County with 183 cases.