January 24, 2021
After today, I intend to switch to a Tuesday-through-Saturday model for this newsletter. The data reported on Sundays and Mondays are invariably skewed by weekend reporting anomalies, so I always must remind readers that the weekend data are not indicative of current trends due to those anomalies.
Case in point: there were 1,728 cases today (incl. 284 probables). This case count does not tell us anything beyond the fact that many testing centers don’t feel sufficient urgency to remain open on weekends. The 7-day moving average positivity rate is between 30 and 32%, where it has remained for the past week.
WBRC reported last night that the Alabama Department of Public Health has ordered all county health departments across the state to shift focus and dedicate all staff members for vaccine work. In my opinion, the reallocation of resources from testing toward vaccinations is necessary and appropriate, if not overdue. The downside is that statewide data on daily cases and tests may be less reliable going forward; nevertheless, I agree with Dr. David Hicks of the Jefferson County Health Dept, who said, “Testing is always important, but, vaccinating is more important at this point than testing.”
Current hospitalizations ticked up slightly today - 2,254 patients in 98 reporting hospitals, or 23 patients per hospital. That is up from 22.8 patients per hospital yesterday, but there were 9 fewer reporting hospitals compared to yesterday.
The Washington Post reports that at least 18.5 million people have received at least one dose of vaccine in the United States, including 3.2 million who have been fully vaccinated. Meanwhile, 41.4 million doses have been distributed to the States, which is roughly equal to the number of doses that Operation Warp Speed promised would be delivered by the end of December. The pace is accelerating, however, as the U.S. has averaged almost 1 million vaccinations per day for the last 4 days. In 7 states plus the District of Columbia, at least 7% of the population has received the first dose - Alaska (10.7%); West Va. (9.2%); N.M. (7.8%); CT (7.7%); N.D (7.4%); S.D. (7.2%); Okla. (7.1%); and D.C. (7.0%). In 4 states, more than 2% of the population is now fully vaccinated - West Va. (2.2%); Alaska (2.2%); N.D. (2.0%); and S.D. (2.0%). That’s right - West Virginia and Alaska have something to teach the rest of the nation.
Based on data that were updated this afternoon, Alabama is reported to have administered the first dose to 4.4% of its population - 47th in the nation, ahead of Nevada, Idaho and Missouri. Our state has given both doses to just 0.6% of its population - tied with MD; OH; and GA; and ahead of only Mississippi (0.5% of population). For the week, 73,587 Alabamians have received a shot, up nearly 25% over the prior week. Even so, we have barely scratched the surface and we still have a long way to go.
Again, my next report will be on Tuesday. Until then, the totals:
1/11 - 2100
1/12 - 3848
1/13 - 3147
1/14 - 3588
1/15 - 2945
1/16 - 3153
1/17 - 1917
1/18 - 1430
1/19 - 2515
1/20 - 3112
1/21 - 2881
1/22 - 3551
1/23 - 3355
1/24 - 1728
Here are the per capita weekly case totals for students, teachers and support staff in the primary school districts in Jefferson County, Alabama’s most populous county (week ending 1/22): Mtn. Brook - 6.7 per 100K; Homewood - 5.4 per 100K; Trussville - 5.1 per 100K; Hoover - 3.2 per 100K; Jefferson - 2.7 per 100K; Vestavia Hills -2.4 per 100K; Birmingham - 0.65 per 100K.