January 23, 2022
Today is a wonderful day. January 23 is the day that Omicron hospitalizations are supposed to peak, according to Dr. Russell Griffin, a UAB epidemiologist who relied on sophisticated computer models to make this forecast several weeks ago.
It is obviously too early to take full measure of Dr. Griffin’s forecast - predictions of that sort are best evaluated in hindsight. It is not too early, however, to point out that today is the first day since Christmas Day that statewide hospitalizations actually FELL by 45 patients (according to the U.S. Dept of Health & Human Services) - from 3,044 to 2,999. This follows yesterday’s statewide total, which rose by only one patient. These last 2 days are a stark contrast to the rest of January, when hospitalizations increased by 2,446 patients - i.e., nearly 100 additional patients per day every single day since Christmas.
If the last 2 days turn out to be the turning point for Alabama’s hospitals, it is happening in the nick of time. Despite its over-hyped reputation as a “mild virus”, Omicron’s hospitalizations are 96% as high as its more deadly cousin, Delta, at the peak last August. If indeed Omicron is peaking, we can be hopeful it will recede quickly. That’s what happened in the U.K. and in South Africa, where daily cases and hospitalizations fell off a cliff after peaking. It is also what’s happening in other regions of our country, where 18 states have seen double-digit declines in cases during the last 7 days, and 10 states have seen double-digit declines in hospitalizations.
What makes Alabama different, of course, is its miserable vaccination rate and militant anti-mask culture. The CDC released new studies this week which show that adults aged 65 and up who received a booster were almost 50 times less likely to be hospitalized by Omicron compared with unvaccinated older adults. Adults aged 50 to 64 were 44 times less likely to be hospitalized. These studies are yet another depressing reminder that Alabama and Idaho are the two states in the nation which have vaccinated fewer than half their populations.
Any Alabamian will tell you that mask-wearing has become the exception, rather than the rule, in our restaurants, churches and schools … despite the unparalleled contagion of Omicron. As a result, we are seeing a dramatic spike in cases among schoolchildren. The Alabama Department of Education reported 26,260 new school cases on Thursday, compared to 16,035 cases last week and just 2,940 cases the week before. Even the State Superintendent of Education, Dr. Eric Mackey, has tested positive.
You may notice that I haven’t yet mentioned the daily reported cases and there is a reason for that. I am increasingly skeptical of daily case counts as a metric for measuring Omicron’s impact due to the prevalence of at-home tests and other considerations. But, if you are keeping track at home, ADPH reported 15,984 new cases on the 20th, 16,525 on the 21st, 17,031 on the 22nd, and 9,807 today. Our 7-day average is 12,959 cases per day and our positivity rate is 45%. All of those numbers are atrocious.
So, I am not prepared to say that Omicron has peaked in our State. I see too few of my fellow Alabamians willing to take the necessary steps to avoid infecting their friends and neighbors. The loudest voices I hear are the ones constantly complaining about the imagined loss of their individual freedoms to infect others with reckless abandon.
However, for one shining moment, on this day, we have reason to hope that Omicron has peaked! We should all be grateful for that gift and celebrate Dr. Griffin’s wonderful day. The totals:
1/9 - 12,452
1/10 - 6,250
1/11 - 8,530
1/12 - 11,204
1/13 - 14,517
1/14 - Not reporting
1/15 - Not reporting
1/16 - 37,339 (accounting for 3 days)
1/17 - 8,058
1/18 - 6,728
1/19 - 17,106
1/20 - 15,984
1/21 - 16,525
1/22 - 17,031
1/23 - 9,087
Interesting that Alabama and Idaho are the two worst states. I grew up in Spokane, WA on the Idaho border. My maternal ancestors were from Coeur d'Alene and Lapwaii, Idaho. When I first moved to Alabama people would say it must have been a real shock for someone from Washington State to move to Alabama. And I would reply " you don't understand, I am from Spokane and I have lots of experience dealing with rednecks." Others would ask: "do many people in Spokane own a gun?" I would say "no, most people in Spokane own several guns."