January 23, 2021 - The Ultimate Race

The Ultimate Race

January 23, 2021

Today brings additional corroboration that cases have leveled off in Alabama at around 3,000 cases per day - 3,355 cases were recorded today (incl. 1,015 probables) - and the State has averaged 3,082 cases per day over the last 5 weekdays. The positivity rate for the last week has remained steady at 30-32%. Tomorrow and Monday, the data will reflect weekend collections, when many testing centers are closed, so expect the daily cases to dip until next Tuesday.

Hospitalizations also are starting to level off, following a brief but rapid decline. After reaching a peak of 29.65 patients per hospital on January 9, the rate declined to 23.1 patients on Wednesday, January 20, then 22.7 patients on Thursday, and 22.5 on Friday, before increasing slightly to 22.8 patients per hospital today. ICU occupancy data should be updated on Monday. Alabama is now tied with Texas for the 5th highest per capita hospitalization rate in the country. 

Meanwhile, Alabama has now recorded a total of 6,657 deaths, 171 more than yesterday. Since Wednesday, Alabama’s death toll has climbed by 426, a 4-day total exceeded only by the 683 deaths recorded for the period January 12-15. Alabama now has the 2nd highest per capita death rate in the nation over the last 7 days, trailing only Arizona. 

It is certainly a relief that both the case count and hospitalization rate have declined sharply since early January, but those rapid declines now seem to have abated. We may be entering a critical new phase that will be determined by the outcome of the ultimate race between vaccines and variants.

We know the U.K. variant is already in the U.S. (it appeared in North Carolina for the first time today), while the South Africa variant cannot be far behind. Both variants are more contagious than the original virus and there is some early evidence that they could also be more deadly. Existing vaccines are thought to provide some protection against the variants, but just how much protection is still open to debate. According to Dr. Fauci, the prospect of these variants spreading in the U.S. is “all the more reason” to vaccinate faster than ever because even if the vaccines do not provide 95% protection, they provide enough protection to make them worth getting.

So, it is impossible to overstate the importance of accelerating the production and distribution of vaccines. According to national trackers, Alabama has fully vaccinated just 0.6% of its population, which is 48th in the nation (barely ahead of Mississippi and Ohio), while 4% of our population has received one dose, which is 47th in the nation (barely ahead of Idaho, Missouri and Nevada). Dr. Harris (and many other experts) blame the slow rollout on inadequate supply while others point to lack of a national distribution plan. 

There is so much riding on the decision, announced by President Biden on just his 2nd day in office, to place vaccines on wartime footing and to bring all of the nation’s resources to bear on the problem, invoking the Defense Production Act and mobilizing FEMA and the National Guard. In this ultimate race between the vaccines and the variants, there is no time to waste.  The totals:

1/10   - 2750

1/11   - 2100

1/12   - 3848

1/13  -  3147

1/14   - 3588

1/15   - 2945

1/16   - 3153

1/17   - 1917

1/18   - 1430

1/19   - 2515

1/20   - 3112

1/21   - 2881

1/22   - 3551

1/23   - 3355

Jefferson County added 468 more cases today, followed by Madison County with 307 cases and Tuscaloosa County with 259 cases.