January 22, 2024 - A Mild Surprise

A Mild Surprise

January 22, 2024

The CDC Covd-19 data for the week ending January 13, 2024 are out and the results were mildly surprising. New hospital admissions both nationally and in Alabama declined for the first time in nearly two months. Viral activity levels in monitored wastewater also improved compared to the prior week. 

Here are the details on hospital admissions: (i) in the United States, new admissions dropped 9.6% compared to the prior week and are now 12.6% below the level recorded during the same week last year; (ii) in Alabama, new admissions dropped 10.6% compared to the prior week and are now 11% below the level recorded during the same week last year. 

As for wastewater viral activity: (i) in the U.S., viral activity dropped from 11.79 last week to 9.38 this week; (ii) in Alabama, viral activity recorded from the five Jefferson County wastewater plants dropped from 14 last week to 10 this week. Throughout the United States, including Alabama, the CDC still characterizes viral activity level in wastewater as “Very High” but the improvements in all geographic regions are significant. 

Early-to-mid-January is exactly the moment in time when hospital admissions have peaked in each of the last three years. In 2021, the peak occurred during the week of January 9. In 2022, it was the week of January 15. And in 2023, it was the week of January 7. This historical pattern was followed again this year. For nine consecutive weeks starting on November 4, 2023, new hospital admissions in the United States topped the total from the prior week … until now. In Alabama, the streak was finally broken after just seven consecutive weeks.

The reason I was “mildly surprised” that this hospitalization pattern has continued to hold in 2024 is because wastewater viral activity levels in Alabama and the U.S. were so extremely high - and rising - during the week leading up to the most recent report. As I stated in my last newsletter, “If Alabama’s wastewater data is a future indicator of rising hospitalizations, then we can expect admissions to rise for a while to come.” Fortunately, that has turned out not to be the case.

Now that new hospital admissions have begun their decline, I would anticipate they will continue to do so. Again, I am trusting history to be our guide. In each of the last three years, once a peak in hospitalizations was reached and then subsequently declined, the pattern of declining admissions continued in each succeeding week until the following April or May. Let’s hope this virus doesn’t throw another curve ball between now and then.

I will be back again next week with another report. In the meantime, stay safe everyone.