January 19, 2022 - When the Surge Discovers Rural Alabama
When the Surge Discovers Rural Alabama
January 19, 2022
Alabama’s Omicron surge continues this week, with an average of 11,964 cases per day (including 17,106 cases reported this morning) and 44.4% positivity rate (rising from 41.1% a week ago). Statewide hospitalizations are 35.6% higher than one week ago, rising from 2,136 to 2,897 patients, according to the U.S. Dept of Health & Human Services and Washington Post tracking service.
I have frequently expressed concern that, as the Omicron variant makes its way into Alabama’s rural communities, it will not only spread faster, but Covid cases could be more severe. The reason for my concern flows from the poor vaccination rates in rural Alabama compared to the cities.** Although Omicron’s mutations allow it to partially evade vaccines, permitting mild infection, vaccines remain an effective shield against severe infection, according to multiple studies.
We should soon find out if my concerns are warranted because Omicron has discovered rural Alabama. Initially, the State’s 4 most urban counties - Jefferson, Mobile, Madison and Montgomery - absorbed the brunt of Omicron’s onslaught. But, that is rapidly changing. Recent data suggests that daily case counts in the 4 urban counties are gradually leveling off. One week ago, for example, Jefferson County averaged 1,746 daily cases; today, the State’s most populous county averages 1,750 cases per day. Similar level case counts can be seen this week in Mobile (1,127 to 1,117 per day), and Madison counties (805 to 791 per day). Montgomery County has actually experienced a significant decline in daily cases since January 10 - from 625 to 390 per day.
It is too soon to declare that Omicron has crested in the urban centers of Alabama, like it has in several East Coast metropolitan areas. But, cases have to stop going up before they can start going down, which may be happening in the 4 largest urban areas of the State. The same cannot be said for rural Alabama. In Marion County, for example - population 30,000 - average daily cases rose from 41 to 71 cases per day in the last week. Franklin County - population 31,500 - has seen its daily cases rise from 41 to 97 per day in just one week. Those numbers are comparable to county after county throughout rural Alabama.
We shall soon see if more cases of Omicron in the most unvaccinated parts of Alabama will translate into more hospitalizations and more stress on ICU’s. We have already reached 93% of peak Delta hospitalizations and 86% of the January peak. Dr. Suzanne Judd, a prominent UAB epidemiologist told reporters Tuesday that the Omicron surge could last 2-3 more weeks before we see some relief.
It’s difficult to imagine how the current pace is sustainable for 2-3 more weeks. UAB Hospital, which had 193 Covid patients this day last week, now has 247 Covid patients. Huntsville Hospital, which had 142 Covid patients last week, now has 190 patients today. DCH treated 91 patients on this day last week and has 114 patients today.
Yet, as dire as the current situation is, ADPH issued this statement today which underscores how much worse it could be without the miracle of vaccines: “The U.S. COVID19 vaccination program has prevented an estimated 1.1 million deaths and 10.3 million hospitalizations. The COVID19 vaccine is your best defense against catching the virus, severe symptoms, hospitalization and death.” The totals:
1/5 - 12,075
1/6 - 12,626
1/7 - 12,972
1/8 - 8,332
1/9 - 12,452
1/10 - 6,250
1/11 - 8,530
1/12 - 11,204
1/13 - 14,517
1/14 - Not reporting
1/15 - Not reporting
1/16 - 37,339 (accounting for 3 days)
1/17 - 8,058
1/18 - 6,728
1/19 - 17,106
** Madison Co. = 59% fully vaccinated; Jefferson Co. = 55%; Montgomery Co. = 51%; Mobile Co. = 47%. Of the remaining 63 counties in Alabama, 45 of them have vaccinated fewer than 45% of their residents.