January 17, 2021
On Sunday, ADPH reported testing data collected Saturday, a day when many testing centers are closed. I expected the case count today to be low … but not this low. The report shows 1,917 new cases (incl. 307 probables), the first day with fewer than 2,000 new cases since the end of November. More encouraging is the fact that hospitalizations also declined to 2,716 (98 reporting hospitals), an average of 27.7 patients per hospital, as compared to 29.65 patients on January 9. This evidence supports the conclusion that the post-holiday surge has peaked and is now declining.
Not surprisingly, the 7-day average positivity rate also dropped to 30-33%. While that rate is better than the mid-40’s, it is still the highest rate of any state besides Idaho, Pennsylvania and Iowa. The question now is whether cases will continue to drop next week, or level off at around 3,000 per day, or start to climb again after taking into account the Tuscaloosa street celebrations last Monday.
Finally, after updating at 4:30 pm. Central time, Bloomberg reports that Alabama’s 29.3% distribution rate (130.4K doses distributed out of 444.6K received by the State) is the lowest percentage in the nation.
History will ultimately be the judge of the Trump administration’s handling of the COVID pandemic. With Inauguration Day nearly upon us, however, it’s not too early to draw a few conclusions. The U.S. accounts for a quarter of the world’s cases (25 million) and a fifth of its deaths (400,000), despite having only 4% of its population. Those percentages have remained steady since the end of March, even as the virus has spread across Europe, into South America, from Southeast Asia to India, and all throughout Africa.
On March 16, the very same day the White House issued nationwide guidelines for closing bars and restaurants, and limiting unnecessary travel and social gatherings, President Trump signaled his abandonment of any national plan by undercutting governors’ attempts to acquire P.P.E (“Try getting it yourselves”, he said.). On April 3, he undermined his own CDC’s guidance on masks (“You don’t have to do it. I’m choosing not to do it.”) and even urged citizens to resist their states’ efforts to battle the virus (“Liberate Michigan”).
By his words and example, Trump became not a leader but a saboteur. He subverted our health agencies by installing political operatives to meddle with science (e.g. Michael Caputo at CDC). He staged unmasked rallies mocking his experts (“people are tired of hearing Fauci and all these idiots”); slowed down testing for political purposes (“So I said to my people, slow the testing down”); and held superspreader events in the Rose Garden and White House. These actions made clear his intention to infect as many Americans as soon as possible. “Herd mentality”, he called it.
Americans know these actions were a colossal failure. Last fall, the Pew Research Center surveyed people from 14 advanced nations and found that 95% of Danish respondents said their country had handled the crisis well. In Australia, the figure was 94%. The U.S. and U.K. were the only countries where a majority believed otherwise.
When President Trump contracted COVID himself, he received immediate treatment at the finest medical facilities on Earth. COVID did not kill him, but it surely defeated him at the ballot box. Since that defeat, he has barely mentioned the pandemic, while fomenting a superspreader riot at the U.S. Capitol. Since the election, 170,000 more Americans have died.
The bottom line: more of our fellow citizens have perished from COVID than on all the battlefields of World War I, World War II, Korean War and Vietnam War - combined. And, as we have seen in Alabama, each death must be thoroughly investigated to confirm the cause, so the current death toll is certainly being undercounted.
When historians issue their judgments on the Trump era, they will likely consider his attacks on democracy, the livelihoods destroyed, and the diminishment of America’s standing in the world. But, it is Trump’s stewardship of the pandemic, eventually claiming more American lives than in all of its wars, combined, that will determine his lasting unforgivable legacy. The totals:
1/4 - 2161
1/5 - 5498
1/6 - 4591
1/7 - 5046
1/8 - 5057
1/9 - 4863
1/10 - 2750
1/11 - 2100
1/12 - 3848
1/13 - 3147
1/14 - 3588
1/15 - 2945
1/16 - 1917