January 16, 2021
The good news of a decline in daily cases continued today - 3,153 (incl. 795 probables) - and the 7-day moving average of daily cases fell for the 5th consecutive day (3,076/ day). The average positivity rate likewise declined to 31-34% over the last 7 days, depending on the tracker. Idaho, Pennsylvania and Iowa now have higher positivity rates than Alabama. We can expect the daily case count tomorrow and Monday to be even lower due to weekend closures of a number of testing centers.
The direction of the data on hospitalizations is more equivocal. There were 2,772 patients reported in 98 hospitals, or an average of 28.3 patients per hospital, which represents an increase from yesterday (26.5 patients per hospital). Alabama, Georgia and Nevada are now essentially tied for the 2nd highest per capita hospitalization rate in the country, behind Arizona.
While daily cases have dropped, the same cannot be said of daily reported deaths - 89 more were added to our rolls today, bringing the State total to 6,119. We have averaged 117 daily reported deaths per day, or 820 deaths for the week. While many of these deaths trace back to July, the last time cases peaked, we should assume there are just as many unreported deaths in December and January that will be reported in February or later.
The weekly COVID data for public schools (K-12) were updated for the first time since before Christmas. Those school districts with the most cases statewide (faculty, staff and students combined) include: (1) Tuscaloosa City (175, up from 48); (2) Mobile County (134, up from 125); (3) Jefferson County (129, down from 190); (4) Tuscaloosa County (118, down from 152); (5) Elmore County (103, up from 65); and (6) Autauga County (93, up from 67).
With the exception of Trussville and Hoover, the suburban school districts in Jefferson County have seen significant improvement since before Christmas. The weekly totals for these districts include Hoover (80 cases, up from 69); Mtn Brook (19, down from 57); Trussville (60, up from 57); Vestavia Hills (31, down from 34); and Homewood (11, down from 29). Adjusted for student enrollment, the districts rank as follows: Trussville - 12.8 cases per 1,000; Hoover - 5.7 per 1,000; Mtn Brook - 4.4 per 1,000 students; Vestavia Hills - 4.3 per 1,000; Jefferson County 3.6 per 1,000; and Homewood - 2.6 per 1,000.
The Alabama Dept of Public Health has publicly disputed the CDC’s recent data on vaccine distribution, which has led to mass confusion. CDC says that only 100.5K have been distributed to Alabama residents out of 445K doses (21%) received by the State. ADPH objected, saying the State received only 370.5K doses and distributed 130.4K (35%) of them. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg News tracker agreed with the CDC on the number of doses Alabama received, but agreed with ADPH on the number of doses distributed.
What we are left with is a hot mess. Bottom line: barely 2% of the State’s population has received one shot of vaccine, which is the lowest or nearly the lowest percentage in the nation. The argument really revolves around whether the cause of Alabama’s dismal record is insufficient supply of vaccine or an inadequate distribution system, or a combination of both. It does little good to argue over who is to blame when time is better devoted to fixing the problem.
When Operation Warp Speed was announced last May, President Trump and Secretary Azar said 100 million doses of vaccine would be available by the end of the year, if not sooner. By November, that estimate had been scaled back to 40 million doses (20 million individuals) by the end of December (“high tens of millions”, Azar told Fox News) and another 25 to 30 million individuals each month thereafter. In actuality, fewer than 15 million shots will reach Americans by January 20, the day President-elect Biden will be inaugurated. The totals:
1/3 - 2476
1/4 - 2161
1/5 - 5498
1/6 - 4591
1/7 - 5046
1/8 - 5057
1/9 - 4863
1/10 - 2750
1/11 - 2100
1/12 - 3848
1/13 - 3147
1/14 - 3588
1/15 - 2945
The BlackBelt has been especially hard-hit recently. Clarke (125 per 100K), Hale (112 per 100K), Fayette (100 per 100K), Etowah (105 per 100K) and Wilcox (101 per 100K) counties have the highest per capita infection rates during the last 7 days. Among the most populous counties, Jefferson has the highest per capita rate at 80 cases per 100K during the same period.