January 15, 2021
As this week comes to an end, there are encouraging signs that Alabama’s post-holiday infections may have crested. There were 2,945 cases (incl. 591 probables) and 12,520 tests, for a one-day positivity rate of 23.5%. The 7-day moving average ranges between 31.2% and 37%, depending on the tracker, which is a further decline in positivity from yesterday.
It’s a good sign that new daily cases have remained below 4,000 per day for 4 straight weekdays, after hitting 5,000+ daily cases for 3 out of the same 4 weekdays last week. It’s also a good sign that hospitalizations appear to have peaked. They have declined 10% since last week at this time. There are reportedly 2,863 patients in 108 reporting hospitals, or 26.5 patients per hospital.
While there are reasons for optimism, it is way too early to breathe a sigh of relief. Although new cases and hospitalizations declined this week, deaths have soared over 160% (85 more deaths today), giving Alabama the highest weekly death rate in the nation. While many of those deaths occurred in the latter half of 2020, they are deaths nonetheless. Over 6,000 COVID deaths in Alabama have now been recorded and every single one is a tragedy.
In addition, we haven’t yet seen the impact of a significant superspreader that took place just 4 days ago - the street celebrations in Tuscaloosa. That unfortunate event has the potential of reigniting our infection rate in Tuscaloosa and around the State. Nor do we know how many Alabamians may have participated in the criminal insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, which not only dealt a blow to democracy, but also infected numerous congressional representatives, and undoubtedly others, when the rioters returned home.
Another matter of increasing concern is the emergence of the mutant virus that has migrated from the U.K. In a study released today, the CDC forecast that this far more contagious variant of the coronavirus will become the dominant source of infection in the U.S. by March, potentially fueling another surge of cases and deaths. This is particularly worrisome in Alabama, where the vaccine distribution system is already overwhelmed and inadequate. So far at least, the new variant does not appear to be any more deadly nor any more resistant to the vaccines than the original version.
So, it all comes down to vaccines. The CDC updated its data but that hasn’t improved Alabama’s standing. Our State has been allocated 444,650 doses but only 100,500 have been injected into arms. That 23.5% distribution rate ranks 50th in the country. In addition, 1.8% of our population has received an injection, also the lowest rate in the country. For comparison, 6.3% of West Virginia’s population has been inoculated, 3.9% of Tennessee’s, 3.6% of Florida’s and 2.5% of Mississippi’s.
A few days ago, I mentioned that HHS Secretary Alex Azar had ordered the release of vaccines being held in reserve for the 2nd dose. I suggested that the decision could help speed up delivery. Well, it turns out that the reserve no longer exists because those doses were released in December. It is unclear if Secretary Azar lied when he issued that grand declaration, or if he simply didn’t know better. Either way, this is a sorry, but fitting, way to end “Operation Warp Speed”, which has been anything but.
Next Wednesday, Inauguration Day, we turn the page. This afternoon, President-elect Biden provided a glimpse of what leadership looks like, vowing to invoke the World War II era Defense Production Act to accelerate vaccine production, to ramp up vaccinations in pharmacies and mass vaccination sites, to expand eligibility to people 65 or older, to reimburse states for the use of National Guard troops to administer vaccines, and to leave no stone unturned while vaccinating at least 100 million people in 100 days.
Biden has appointed Dr. David Kessler to lead this effort. Dr. Kessler worked closely with Dr. Fauci as George H.W. Bush’s choice to lead the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in its battle to defeat AIDS/H.I.V. Kessler is the rare physician who is also a lawyer and has a record of achievement inside and outside the government that brings credibility and gravitas to the most important mission facing our country in at least half a century.
1/2 - 3711
1/3 - 2476
1/4 - 2161
1/5 - 5498
1/6 - 4591
1/7 - 5046
1/8 - 5057
1/9 - 4863
1/10 - 2750
1/11 - 2100
1/12 - 3848
1/13 - 3147
1/14 - 3588
1/15 - 2945