February 7, 2024 - Not So Fast

Not So Fast

February 7, 2024

The CDC’s latest weekly Covid report relates to the period ending January 27, 2024. Viral activity, as measured by wastewater readings, declined almost everywhere in the United States …. except in the South. 

Nationally, the average viral activity level measured 6.92 compared to 7.34 last week.(See footnote below for how to interpret wastewater data). In the West region, the level declined from 6.86 to 6.18. In the Midwest, it declined from 6.72 to 5.70. In the Northeast, it rose slightly from 6.33 to 6.66. Yet, in the South region, the level rose significantly from 12.33 to 13.69, more than double the reading (6.71) that was registered during the same week last year. The five monitoring stations located in Jefferson County, Alabama measured 12.0 compared to 11.0 during the same week last year. 

The South region also had a worse week than the rest of the nation in terms of new Covid hospital admissions. In fact, only six states experienced an uptick in hospitalizations and five of them were in the South. Alabama led the way, rising 7.3%, followed by Georgia (up 5.9%), Texas (up 3.3%), Louisiana (up 2.1%) and Florida (up 0.7%). In contrast, new hospital admissions dropped 10.9% nationally.

The JN.1 variant is now the dominant strain, by far - in fact, the CDC estimates that 93% of all new cases in the United States during the week of January 27 were caused by the JN.1 variant. The good news is that this season’s updated Covid-19 vaccines provided 54% protection against symptomatic infection compared with those who did not get the latest shot, according to the CDC’s most recent Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. By way of comparison, the flu vaccine is typically about 40% to 60% effective.

The CDC’s latest weekly report is a sobering reminder that we cannot take anything for granted as it relates to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Just when you think the winter surge is over, the coronavirus has sent the message to Southerners: “Not so fast”. Hopefully, the next report will show a resumption of the decline we experienced during the three preceding reporting periods.

Footnote:  “Wastewater Viral Activity Level is a calculated measure that allows the CDC to aggregate wastewater sample data to get state/territorial, regional, and national levels and see trends over time. Most simply, the value associated with the Wastewater Viral Activity Level is the number of standard deviations above the baseline, transformed to the linear scale. The current Wastewater Viral Activity Level for each state and territory is categorized into minimal, low, moderate, high, or very high as follows: a Wastewater Viral Activity Level less than 1.5 is categorized as minimal, greater than 1.5 and up to 3 is low, greater than 3 and up to 4.5 is moderate, greater than 4.5 and up to 8 is high, and greater than 8 is very high.” Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.