February 6, 2021 - Weekly Update

Weekly Update

February 6, 2021

The overall data is somewhat encouraging today. We appear to have reached a new normal of around 2,000 new cases per day - 1,992 today (incl. 635 probables). Of course, the case count tomorrow and Monday should be lower due to weekend abnormalities, but the daily average for the last 5 weekdays is 2,090. We’ll have to see if that holds up next week. If so, our daily average is about half what it was at the peak in mid-January, and has returned to the level last seen in mid to late November. We are still slightly above the level of daily cases at the peak of the 2nd wave in July.

Confirmed hospitalizations have declined to 1,551 patients in 101 reporting hospitals, or 15.4 patients per hospital, compared with 15.5 patients per hospital yesterday. There are nearly half as many confirmed COVID patients as there were a month ago, and the 7-day average has returned to the level last seen in the first week of December. 

There are 64 more reported deaths, virtually all of them occurring in January. The death toll in January is now 1,320, just 180 below Alabama’s death toll in December. It seems clear that January will eventually hold the standard as the deadliest month of the pandemic in Alabama. 

Six weeks ago, Alabama’s per capita death rate was lower than the national average, but that is no longer the case, by a long shot. Nationally, 1,430 Americans have died of COVID per 100K population -  in Alabama, 1,736 have died per 100K population. Leading the states in this grim metric are the states that were devastated early in the pandemic - New Jersey (2,473 per 100K); New York (2,304); Massachusetts (2,165); Connecticut (2,023); and Louisiana (1,952) - as well as states, like South Dakota (2,039); Arizona (1,925); and North Dakota (1,874) that were ravaged last fall.

Alabama has quietly risen on that leaderboard over the last 6 weeks. To put it in perspective, since the start of the pandemic, Alabama has suffered more than twice as many deaths per capita as Kentucky, Virginia or Washington state, and almost 4 times as many deaths as Oregon. Alabama now trails only Mississippi and Louisiana in per capita deaths among southern states. 

On the vaccine front, 30.8 million Americans have received 1 shot, or 9.3% of the total population, and 8.7 million have received both shots, or 2.6% of the population.  In Alabama, just 7.6% of the population has received the first dose (47th in the nation); and 1.7% has received both doses (50th). In addition, 436.9 of the 836.9 doses received by the State have been administered, or 52.2% of the total (49th in the nation). 

The K-12 data has been updated, with 91.6% of statewide school districts voluntarily reporting 2,301 cases for the week ended February 7, a decline of 190 cases. The 5 school districts with the highest totals: (i) Mobile County (118 cases, up from 109) (2.19 per 100K); (ii) Baldwin County (109 cases, up from 77) (3.38 per 100K); (iii) Madison County (99 cases, up from 66) (5.19 per 100K); (iv) Huntsville (98 cases, up from 82) (4.08 per 100K); (v) Shelby County (94 cases, down from 104)(4.57 per 100K).

Within Jefferson County, the totals are: (i) Jefferson County (70 cases, down from 118) (1.93 per 100K); (ii) Hoover (52 cases, up from 50) (3.72 per 100K); (iii) Vestavia Hills (33 cases, up from 10) (4.60 per 100K); (iv) Homewood (22 cases, up from 15) (5.13 per 100K); (v) Mountain Brook (19 cases, down from 31) (2.07 per 100K); (vi) Trussville (12 cases, down from 11) (2.56 per 100K).  Next update: Tuesday.

1/23   - 3355

1/24   - 1728

1/25   - 1839

1/26   - 2900 

1/27   - 3177

1/28   - 3648

1/29   - 2848

1/31   - 4057

2/2     - 2078

2/3     - 2118

2/4     - 2767 

2/5     - 1496

2/6     - 1992