February 4, 2021
There were 2,767 cases (incl. 812 probables) reported today, 31% more than yesterday. There were also 9,772 reported tests, 60% more than yesterday. This illustrates the point I’ve made frequently that daily case counts are so directly related to the volume of tests performed. I believe the positivity rate (i.e. the percentage of tests that are positive) is far more important than the raw number of cases for that reason. For today, I am less troubled by the fact that reported cases rose by 600 today, than the fact that 28% of the tests performed are still yielding positive results.
It’s good news that hospitalizations were stable today. There were 16 patients per reporting hospital (1,666 patients in 104 hospitals), which is virtually identical to the ratio yesterday (1,777 patients in 111 hospitals). Our hospitals, on average, are caring for almost half as many COVID patients as they did when they reached a peak of 29.65 patients per hospital on January 11. However, as Alabama’s hospitalization rate improves, so too does the rate in other states, leaving Alabama with the 6th highest per capita rate of 37 patients per 100K population.
Tragically, the improving hospitalization rate comes too late for the 162 Alabamians whose deaths were confirmed today. All but 6 of those deaths occurred in January. Prior to December, the month of August was our deadliest month (940 deaths), but December has now logged 1,492 deaths, while January is not far behind with 1,207 reported deaths and still rising. Alabama’s 7-day moving average for deaths is still above 20 per 100K population, far higher than any other state. Hopefully, as our hospitalizations decline, so should our deaths, but that is of little solace to the families who have lost loved ones.
ADPH’s updated dashboard reveals that 413K doses have been administered out of 837K doses received (49.4%). According to national trackers, approximately 6.6% of our population has received one dose (which is 49th in the nation) and 1.3 % has received both doses (tied with GA & MS for last in the nation). The rollout still seems so painfully slow, not just in Alabama, but across the country.
One reason for the slow rollout is clear. The Trump administration approached vaccine distribution the same way it approached the problems of PPE and ventilators early in the pandemic - by assuming the states would take care of it without considering what help the states might need in the face of an unprecedented rise in cases. The Biden administration is ratcheting up the help, but until it materializes, states must continue muddling through, building the airplane as it flies along.
Another reason why some states are slower than others is that some, like Alabama, are holding more 2nd doses in reserve (as Dr. Harris said, “every dose has someone’s name on it.”). The 5 states with the highest percentage of doses administered are ND (96%), W.Va (85%), NM (82%), MT (80%) and UT (77%). Alabama’s percentage is 49.4%. Many infectious disease experts argue we must proceed right now to target the most vulnerable population with one dose in advance of a possible surge fueled by the highly contagious variants from U.K. and South Africa that have already arrived in our country.
As the variants spread in Alabama, the person who decided to hold back 2nd doses for another day will surely face a lot of second-guessing, if not soul searching. The totals:
1/21 - 2881
1/22 - 3551
1/23 - 3355
1/24 - 1728
1/25 - 1839
1/26 - 2900
1/27 - 3177
1/28 - 3648
1/29 - 2848
1/31 - 4057
2/2 - 2078
2/3 - 2118
2/4 - 2767