February 24, 2021
It is difficult to be patient on a beautiful Spring day like this. Before yesterday, Alabama had recorded fewer than 1,000 new cases on 6 of the prior 7 days. Now, for the second straight day, we have taken a step backwards by recording 1,247 cases (incl. 271 probables) and just 4,039 reported tests. Just like yesterday, the positivity rate is north of 30% for the day, and the 7-day moving average in positivity also moved in the wrong direction, edging up to 21.5%. There were 84 more reported deaths and the overall death toll is now 9,744.
Lately, I haven’t put much stock in reports of declining cases in Alabama because reported tests have declined even faster. In fact, since February 5, the 7-day average of reported tests has dropped 64%, while the 7-day moving average of new daily cases has dropped only 48%, leaving us with a slowly rising positivity rate. Even so, the hospitalization rate continues to plummet, dropping again today to 773 patients in 109 reporting hospitals, or 7.1 patients per hospital. Hospitalizations have now declined by an amazing 75% in just 5-6 weeks.
Trying to make sense of this data is hard, but I’ll give you my theory of how it fits together. I believe hospitalizations are plummeting because our most vulnerable citizens (seniors, frontline workers, long-term care residents) are being vaccinated at a rapid rate. However, that does not mean the rate of infection is declining as fast as portrayed by local media. Severe cases are certainly declining, but mild to moderate cases are still a threat.
According to the Washington Post, Alabama has averaged 23,700 shots per day over the last week. I believe the WaPo daily average excludes Sundays, meaning the State dispensed around 142,000 doses over the last week. This weekly average has been trending upwards and that will continue for two reasons: (i) first, weekly shipments of existing vaccines continue to rise - on Tuesday, the White House said the states will begin receiving one million more weekly doses for a total of 14.5 million doses per week (i.e. 2 million per day); and (ii) second, the single-dose J&J vaccine will receive approval by the FDA as soon as this weekend and will begin distribution immediately thereafter.
Major League Baseball’s Opening Day this year is April 1. If the vaccine distribution rate increases by just 20% (i.e.170,000 doses per week), which should be achievable in the coming days, then I believe the general population could be eligible to get a shot by then. What an amazing achievement that would be …. and I have a hunch we will get there. Play ball! The totals:
2/9 - 1318
2/10 - 1401
2/11 - 1503
2/12 - 1097
2/13 - 1189
2/16 - 883
2/17 - 679
2/18 - 1198
2/19 - 847
2/20 - 774
2/21 - 857
2/22 - 677
2/23 - 1453
2/24 - 1247
Thanks so much for your report. Son-Robert went to the Auburn baseball game on this beautiful spring-like day...put wore a mask and socially distanced. With him in in-person labs, I certainly wish college students who must work closely with others could get vaccinated!
As always, thank you!!