February 22, 2022
It has been 5 days (February 17) since my last newsletter. Since then, statewide hospitalizations have dropped from 1,891 to 1,381 (a decline of 27%) and the positivity rate has dropped from 14.5% to 10.2% (a decline of 30%). The 7-day average of new reported cases is now 1,171 per day, compared to 1,896 per day on this same day last week (a decline of 38%).
The State of Alabama is now averaging 28 new cases per 100K population, just slightly higher than the national average of 25 new cases per 100K. Of the 10 most populous counties in the State, only Tuscaloosa County (53 per 100K) is seeing significantly more daily cases than the national average. The other populous counties include: Jefferson -17 per 100K; Mobile - 24 per 100K; Madison - 34 per 100K; Baldwin - 21 per 100K; Montgomery - 15 per 100K; Shelby - 26 per 100K; Lee - 15 per 100K; and Morgan - 29 per 100K.
These trends are definitely encouraging but Omicron has not yet disappeared. December 15 is the date that Omicron was officially identified in Alabama, and on that day, we averaged 683 cases per day, had 496 hospitalizations, and the positivity rate was just 6%. We still have a ways to go before we reach pre-Omicron levels but we should get there soon.
That’s assuming the Ba.2 variant (also known as “Stealth Omicron”) remains under control. Infectious disease experts are keeping a close eye on Ba.2, which is considered 30% more contagious than Omicron itself. This Omicron subvariant has been identified throughout the U.S. and many experts expected it to quickly take off, as it did in Denmark. So far, that has not happened, accounting for about 3.9% of all new infections nationally, according to the CDC. New Japanese lab studies suggest that Ba.2 could cause severe illness like Delta, but those findings are only preliminary.
All in all, we are in a pretty good place right now. I will continue writing for a while longer - probably until the positivity rate falls below 5% and hospitalizations are in the low hundreds. We can expect that Covid will eventually become endemic, meaning the overall rate will become static, neither rising nor falling. Until that happens, please stay vigilant and stay safe. The totals:
2/9 - 3,649
2/10 - 2,713
2/11 - 2,835
2/12 - 2,438
2/13 - 1,054
2/14 - 724
2/15 - 2,136
2/16 - 1,975
2/17 - 2,108
2/18 - 1,440
2/19 - 1,163
2/20 - 484
2/21 - 392
2/22- 639