February 2, 2021
There are contradictory data to report today, starting with 2,078 new cases (incl. 908 probables) but only 1,418 reported tests. My guess is, the reported tests on the ADPH dashboard are wrong and will be corrected. If accurate, the 2,078 cases are moderately good news coming off a weekend, except for 2 caveats: (1) ADPH has advised facilities to reallocate resources from testing to vaccinations (for example, DCH closed its remote testing site), so the numbers may be distorted; and (2) although 2,078 cases are lower than last week, they are still high - more, in fact, than the State averaged per day during the peak outbreak last summer.
There are now 1,868 patients in 108 reporting hospitals, or 17.3 patients per hospital. No question, statewide hospitalizations continue to decline. However, federal statistics on ICU capacity, updated yesterday, reveal that Alabama’s 94% ICU rate is still the highest in the nation. Compared to other states, Alabama is tied with California for the 6th highest per capita rate in the country (39 patients per 100K).
In the Birmingham area, 9 hospitals average ICU occupancy of 95%, led by St. Vincent’s (113%), Grandview (94%) and UAB Hospital (93%). In Montgomery, the ICU’s of all 3 Baptist hospitals are 100% occupied and Jackson Hospital is 98%. In Mobile, the average occupancy for 7 hospitals is 109%, led by Springhill Memorial (129%), USA Health (127%), Thomas Hospital (Fairhope)(105%) and Mobile Infirmary (98%). The ICU’s in the regional hospitals are also full - Cullman (185%); Gadsden (98%); Anniston (101%); Opelika (100%); and Dothan (124%).
There were 206 more recorded deaths in Alabama today. And sadly, 19 of those deaths occurred on Christmas Day, while 28 of them occurred on the day after Christmas. Alabama’s rate of 21 deaths per 100K population over the last 7 days remains the highest in the nation, ahead of South Carolina (14.8).
ADPH’s updated vaccine dashboard says that 374K doses have been administered out of 798K doses the State has received (46.9%). According to the CDC, every other state has administered more than 50% of its doses. Four very diverse states - Alaska, West Virginia, N.M. and CT - have given the first dose to more than 10% of their populations, while Alabama has reached 6.4% of its population (48th).
In the great race between vaccines and variants, Dr. Michael Olsterholm, a top epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota advising the Biden administration, told “Meet the Press” on Sunday that he expects to see a surge of cases in the next 6 to 10 weeks, thanks to the spread of variants from the U.K. and South Africa. He also predicted a surge in hospitalizations “like we have not seen yet in this country.” Citing studies showing that vaccines provide significant protection even after just one dose, Dr. Osterholm urged states to “get as many one-doses in as many people over 65 as we possibly can to reduce serious illness and death that is going to occur over the weeks ahead.”
“The [category 5] hurricane is coming. Because of this surge, we have to call an audible,” he said. The totals:
1/19 - 2515
1/20 - 3112
1/21 - 2881
1/22 - 3551
1/23 - 3355
1/24 - 1728
1/25 - 1839
1/26 - 2900
1/27 - 3177
1/28 - 3648
1/29 - 2848
1/31 - 4057
2/2 - 2078