February 19, 2021 - A Pivotal Chapter

A Pivotal Chapter

February 19, 2021

In what has become a familiar pattern, new daily cases and hospitalizations are down again today, while deaths are disturbingly high. With 847 daily cases (incl. 48 probables) and 5,063 tests, the one-day positivity rate is 16.7%, but the 7-day moving average is around 21%. Reported hospitalizations (951 patients in 106 hospitals) dipped below 1,000 for the first time since November 7, while 9 patients per hospital is the lowest rate since October 23.

Although Alabama’s death rate is off the highs of January and early February, the decline in deaths has been spotty. Today represents a setback as ADPH reported 149 more deaths, 56 of which occurred in January and 63 in February. As of today, 9,573 Alabamians have lost their lives to this virus, making Alabama the 10th highest in per capita deaths since the pandemic began.

According to ADPH’s updated dashboard, 717.5K of 924K doses have been administered, or 77.65% of the State’s total doses, meaning 530,021 people have received at least 1 shot and 186,578 people are fully vaccinated. In the last week, we have averaged 19,500 doses administered per day, a 5% decrease from the prior week.

This week’s decline in vaccinations is not really unexpected. The White House announced that the delivery of 6 million doses of vaccines was delayed because of winter storms. The delay has created a backlog affecting every state and slowing the pace of appointments next week. In north Alabama, for instance, Huntsville Hospital announced that it will stop scheduling new appointments until the week of March 22 because its allotment of vaccines has been cut in half. Anyone who already has an appointment for either a first or second dose will not be affected, but no new appointments will be made until then.

Shortages resulting from the winter storm are likely to bring other related issues to a head. For instance, the NY Times is reporting that officials in states across the country are trying to pry loose millions of excess doses that are sitting in freezers allocated to nursing homes or stockpiled for second doses. Another potential flashpoint in Alabama is the absence of a residency requirement for vaccinations. Dr. Harris has acknowledged that 1.7% of the State’s doses have gone to out-of-state residents, which will not sit well with Alabama residents who cannot schedule appointments.

The next few months are shaping up as a pivotal chapter in a long-running battle between vaccines and variants from the U.K., South Africa and Brazil. As coronavirus infections and hospitalizations have plunged in recent weeks, experts worry that the upstarts could reverse the trends. Therefore, it was encouraging to hear Pfizer say today that (i) its vaccine has proven to be 85% effective after just one dose, according to an Israeli study, and (ii) it can be stored for up to 2 weeks at standard freezer temperatures, expanding the number of pharmacies and doctors’ offices that can administer the vaccine.

The totals:

2/4 - 2767

2/5 - 1496

2/6 - 1992

2/7 - 1112

2/8 - 925

2/9 - 1318

2/10 - 1401

2/11 - 1503

2/12 - 1097

2/13 - 1189

2/16 - 883

2/17 - 679

2/18 - 1198

2/19 - 847