February 17, 2023
Last night, the CDC reported Alabama’s updated Covid case counts for the week ending February 15. And the news is good.
For the week, Alabama reported 6,073 cases, or 868 cases per day. That represents a 34.5% decline from last week’s total of 9,280 cases, or 1,325 cases per day. On a per capita basis, Alabama reported 17.7 daily cases per 100K population, which is still higher than every state besides Kentucky (19 per 100K) and Tennessee (18 per 100K). The national average is only 11 per 100K. Nevertheless, this is a dramatic decline since last week, when Alabama’s per capita rate was 28 daily cases per 100K.
The primary reason for the improvement in Alabama’s infection rate is an easing of the spike in the Birmingham metropolitan area. Last week, the three main counties surrounding Birmingham - Jefferson, Shelby and St. Clair counties - were responsible for 47% of the statewide total. This week, that percentage has dropped to 24%. On a county-by-county basis, (1) Jefferson County’s per capita rate of infection has dropped 66% - from 67 cases per 100K to 22.5 per 100K; (2) Shelby County has dropped 78% - from 83 cases per 100K to 18 per 100K; and (3) St. Clair County has dropped 52% - from 55 cases per 100K to 26 per 100K.
Alabama’s experience of the last two weeks is a graphic example of this pandemic’s unpredictability. Weekly data, especially at the local level, can be heavily influenced by one or more localized events - a wedding or funeral, a popular concert, a sporting event. That’s why we may never know what might have caused last week’s spike. Given the prevalence of at-home testing, case counts are not particularly reliable, but they do provide insight into local trends. I’d like to see the decline in reported cases around Birmingham continue into next week before concluding that the latest mini-spike is no longer a concern.
Fortunately, hospitalizations remain under control in Alabama. In fact, statewide hospitalizations declined from 377 patients last week to 366 patients this week. Compared to other states, Alabama is in the middle of the pack and is equal to the national average.
Nearly three years ago, Lauren Gardner, an engineering professor at Johns Hopkins, worked through the night to help one of her graduate students build a dashboard in the student’s Google Drive that mapped the spread of a highly contagious virus in Asia. In the months that followed, that humble dashboard grew and evolved into the Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, an award-winning hub which has provided indispensable life-saving information to governments, organizations and individuals around the globe.
It is a sign of the times that the Hopkins Center just announced it will update its maps and charts for the final time on March 10. When Professor Gardner first launched her dashboard, governments lacked the capacity to provide current reliable data. Now, the CDC and the World Health Organization host comprehensive COVID-19 data trackers.
I want to take a moment to salute Prof. Gardner, Johns Hopkins University, and so many others (like Bamatracker.com) who have stepped up to the challenge of publishing transparent, reliable, easy-to-understand data throughout this pandemic. Their efforts have allowed us to successfully navigate our lives during an era defined by politicization, polarization and distrust of public systems. I am optimistic that government and public health leaders will apply the lessons learned from this pandemic by improving the nation’s data infrastructure before the arrival of the next pandemic.
Daffodils are blooming in Alabama, a vivid and hopeful reminder that spring is just around the corner.