February 16, 2021 - Vaccine Distribution is Improving in Alabama
Vaccine Distribution is Improving in Alabama
February 16, 2021
Although the number of new daily cases in Alabama has declined significantly, today’s case count is somewhat misleading. There were just 883 new cases reported today (incl 317 probables) but only 3,801 tests, which equates to a 23.2% one-day positivity rate. For a weekday, 883 cases is extraordinary, but you have to take into account the low number of reported tests. Whether it is the winter storm, or perhaps the diversion of resources to vaccinations, or both, testing is simply too suppressed for the case count to accurately reflect the rate of infection. Our 7-day average positivity rate is around 20%, according to both BamaTracker and Johns Hopkins, which is actually a bit higher than earlier in the month and essentially mirrors the positivity rate during Thanksgiving week.
Hospitalizations are definitely improving, however - 1,104 patients in 107 reporting hospitals, or 10.3 per hospital. There were also just 13 statewide deaths reported today. Alabama’s death rate is getting better, as it is throughout the U.S. Over the last 7 days, 13.9 Alabamians have died per 100K population, which remains the 2nd highest rate in the nation, but is down by 33% compared to 2 weeks ago.
ADPH’s updated vaccine dashboard reflects that 649K doses of the State’s 873.8K doses have now been administered. For the week ended 2/13, 146,300 doses were administered, 43,000 more doses than in any prior week. This represents a major advance in the distribution of the doses sitting in storage. Indeed, Alabama has now administered 74.3% of the doses it has received, just below the national average of 78%. According to ADPH, ~10% of the State’s population has received one dose and ~3.1% are now fully vaccinated. We continue to be last in the percentage of those fully vaccinated but there are several states with lower first-dose percentages.
There are several important news items relating to vaccines. First, evidence is mounting that the so-called U.K. variant (B.1.1.7) is deadlier and results in more hospitalizations than non-variant COVID-19 cases. A British report that compiled research from several major university studies found that the B.1.1.7 variant results in 30-70% greater severity than the original virus. We have long known the B.1.1.7 variant is more transmissible but this report confirms that it is also more pathogenic (this variant killed a Birmingham-area resident last week). The good news is that it does not seem to be any more resistant to vaccines.
Second, J&J’s clinical trial in the U.S. for its 2-dose vaccine is well underway, while the 1-dose version is expected to receive emergency use authorization by the end of February. The 2-dose version is thought to potentially have even higher efficacy than the 72% U.S. efficacy rate for the 1-dose version. The J&J vaccine is being administered in South Africa, beginning this week.
One final piece of good news for residents of Jefferson County. Wal-Mart and Sam’s Club announced that they will begin vaccinating people at 16 locations in the Birmingham area after initially leaving Birmingham locations off their distribution lists. Sign-ups will begin this week on Wal-Mart’s website. The totals:
2/2 - 2078
2/3 - 2118
2/4 - 2767
2/5 - 1496
2/6 - 1992
2/7 - 1112
2/8 - 925
2/9 - 1318
2/10 - 1401
2/11 - 1503
2/12 - 1097
2/13 - 1189
2/16 - 883