February 13, 2021
We’ve come to the end of another week and the trends in new cases and hospitalizations continue to improve in Alabama: (i) 1,189 new daily cases (incl. 358 probables); (ii) 7-day moving average of 1,221 new cases per day (lowest since 10/22); (iii) 7-day moving average positivity rate of 13.7%, according to Johns Hopkins (lowest since 10/13); and (iv) 1,140 patients in 97 reporting hospitals, or 11.8 patients per hospital (lowest since 11/14).
Yet, with 62 more deaths today, Alabama’s overall death toll is now 9,242. That’s as many total deaths as Louisiana, a state that was crushed by the virus last spring. It is more deaths per capita than all but 9 states. January has been a particularly brutal month as COVID deaths have literally doubled since Christmas Day.
As of 5:30 pm, the ADPH vaccine dashboard has not been updated, so I’d like to share some interesting data on projected distributions. From their approval in December through the end of March, 220 million doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are expected to be delivered to the states. If Alabama continues to be allocated the same percentage it has received thus far (1.379%), then Alabama will reach the 3 million mark by then - enough to fully vaccinate 1.5 million people. While that seems like a lot, it is short of what may be needed to get through Phase 1c. By the end of May, Alabama’s allocated share may top 4.15 million. By then, general vaccinations should be well underway.
Finally, according to Worldometers.info, a prominent global tracker, the U.S. is expected to record its 500,000th death by early next week. This comes as the preeminent British medical journal, The Lancet, published the results of a study this week, showing that 40% of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. in the past year were avoidable. By comparing U.S. coronavirus outcomes and excess deaths with the weighted average of other G-7 nations, the journal concluded that the U.S. could have saved hundreds of thousands of lives if it had just performed similarly to its economic peers.
The Lancet went further, reflecting a growing international consensus that the prior administration bears much of the responsibility for these avoidable deaths. The article states, “Instead of galvanizing the U.S. populace to fight the pandemic, ex-President Trump publicly dismissed its threat, discouraged action as infection spread, and eschewed international cooperation.”
The Lancet article is a tragic reminder, on the day his second impeachment trial concluded, that Trump’s legacy of failure extends well beyond the attack on the U.S. Capitol. His mishandling of the pandemic has had deadly consequences and the judgment of history is not likely to be kind. The totals:
1/31 - 4057
2/2 - 2078
2/3 - 2118
2/4 - 2767
2/5 - 1496
2/6 - 1992
2/7 - 1112
2/8 - 925
2/9 - 1318
2/10 - 1401
2/11 - 1503
2/12 - 1097
2/13 - 1189