February 12, 2022
I am pleased to report that the decline in hospitalizations in Alabama is finally gaining steam. According to the U.S. Dept of Health & Human Services, there are now 2,165 patients in Alabama hospitals - 21% lower than on this day last week. We are averaging 44 hospitalizations per 100K population, which remains the 3rd highest rate in the nation, but the 21% weekly decline is faster than in all but 10 states.
Our daily reported cases are declining even more rapidly. For the week, Alabama averaged 2,800 new reported cases per day, or 46% below the daily average just one week ago. Only 13 states have seen a more rapid decline. In addition, Alabama’s statewide positivity rate is 19.6%, the first time it has fallen below 20% in over a month. It makes sense that Alabama’s rate of cases and hospitalizations would be declining so quickly as it finally narrows the gap on states that started improving sooner.
Deaths, the ultimate lagging indicator, will take longer to get under control. We lost 230 more Alabamians this week, which increases the State’s overall death toll to 17,571. The official death toll in the United States is 916,949.
The F.D.A. was in the news this week, as it postponed the decision to authorize Pfizer’s proposed 3-dose vaccine regimen for roughly 18 million children under the age of 5. It appears that parents of young children will have to wait another two months while regulators gather and analyze more data. The issue causing the delay has nothing to do with vaccine effectiveness, but rather the determination of appropriate dosage. With Omicron cases falling nationally and the likelihood of young children getting severely ill fairly remote, the F.D.A felt that a 2-month delay was justified.
The CDC also had an active week. On Friday, it released the results of a study examining the waning effectiveness of booster shots to prevent severe cases requiring hospitalization. The study found that mRNA vaccines were 87%-91% effective against severe cases in the first 2 months after a booster, but their effectiveness declined to between 66%-78% by the start of the 4th month. As a result, the CDC has recommended that people with weakened immune systems receive a 4th shot within three months after receiving their 3rd shot.
I am feeling very encouraged by what I see in the data right now. It’s important to remember that new daily infections in Alabama are still as high as they were in late December, and hospitalizations are roughly the same as on January 11. We are not yet out of the woods but the trends are getting much better with each passing day.
I doubt many of you will appreciate what we have lived through during the last six weeks. On January 16, Alabama reported 37,339 new cases - more than 7x the high water marks from last January and August. The 7-day average of new cases reached 17,000 per day in mid-January, more than 3x the highest level from the two earlier waves. However, although peak hospitalizations equaled the highest point in 2021, they never exceeded it. That is a credit to the miracle of vaccines and the enormous, tireless dedication of our medical professionals.
There is no doubt - we dodged a bullet. Omicron did not defeat us. Our hospitals did not crash. Looking back, it seems especially fitting, in the midst of the Winter Olympics, to ask this question: “Do you believe in miracles?”
1/30 - 6,490
1/31 - 5,459
2/1 - 5,639
2/2 - 5,404
2/3 - not reporting
2/4 - 11,196
2/5 - 1,924
2/6 - not reporting
2/7 - 3,456
2/8 - 4,507
2/9 - 3,649
2/10 - 2,713
2/11 - 2,835
2/12 - 2,438
Yes, I believe in MIRACLES! Thank you for keeping us updated. I value ur research!
I believe in miracles!!!