February 12, 2021 - Herd Immunity

Herd Immunity

February 12, 2021

The headline data for cases (1,097 incl. 216 probables) and hospitalizations (1,267 patients in 105 reporting hospitals - average 12.1 patients per hospital) are improving with each passing day. The hospitalization rate is now the lowest since November 18, while the 7-day moving average for daily new cases is the lowest since October 31. The positivity rate for today is 16.2% and the 7-day moving average is between 16% and 19%, depending on your tracker. 

Yet, with 159 more reported deaths, Alabama’s per capita death rate remains the 2nd highest in the country over the last 7 days - 15 per 100K population. Only 9 states have suffered more COVID deaths per capita since the start of the pandemic than Alabama, and most of those states were early targets of the virus last spring. Hopefully, Alabama’s stubbornly high death totals should begin to decline soon.

I want to focus the remainder of this letter on vaccine distribution because I am encouraged that Alabama’s performance is gradually, but unmistakably improving. As of this afternoon, 581K of 900.6K of the State’s doses are now in people’s arms, or 64.5% of the State’s doses. This equates to 9.3% of the State’s population getting one dose and 2.6% getting fully vaccinated. We are still well below the national average - 10.9% with one dose and 3.7% fully vaccinated - but we are clearly getting better. 

For example, a slightly lower percentage of the population in 4 states (Nebraska, Georgia, R.I. and Kansas) has received the first dose. In 5 states (CA; SC; GA; NV; and ID), the percentage of those fully vaccinated is about the same as Alabama. In fact, the profiles of Georgia and Alabama now look essentially the same with regard to rollouts of both first and second doses. While our results are still a long way from resembling the best states - e.g. Alaska 16.2% (1st dose) and 7% (2nd dose); or West Virginia 12.9% (1st dose) and 6.8% (2nd dose) - at least we are no longer dead last in those metrics. 

While the pace of distribution in Alabama is definitely picking up, we still must do more than we are doing if we are to achieve 70% herd immunity (3,432,100 people) by the end of 2021. After deducting those who have been infected (478,667) and fully vaccinated (125,553), and taking into account those who have received the first dose (455,097), it would require 5,200,663 more shots to achieve herd immunity. At the current average of about 16,500 doses per day, it would take 315 days (10 months) to reach that level. Of course, if the 1-dose J&J vaccine becomes available in Alabama, the period would shorten.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration announced yesterday that it has struck a deal to purchase 200 million more doses from Pfizer and Moderna. Therefore, it said, a total of 600 million doses will be supplied to the states by the end of July - enough to vaccinate 90% of the U.S. population. If Alabama has a plan to distribute this supply expeditiously, then herd immunity could conceivably be achieved by the end of the summer. The totals:

1/29   - 2848

1/31   - 4057

2/2     - 2078

2/3     - 2118

2/4     - 2767 

2/5     - 1496

2/6     - 1992

2/7     - 1112

2/8     -  925

2/9     - 1318

2/10   - 1401

2/11   - 1503

2/12   - 1097