December 9, 2020 - We Are the Frogs
We Are the Frogs
December 9, 2020
In the past week in Alabama, new daily reported cases rose 33.4%; new daily deaths rose 50%; COVID-related hospitalizations rose 17.2%; and the average positivity rate was 33.8%. I led off with this weekly comparison tonight in order to spotlight the fable of the boiling frog. We are the frogs.
The pot of boiling water includes the following data reported today: 3,522 new cases (incl. 990 probables) and 9,075 tests (10% below the 7-day average), leading to a one-day positivity rate of 38.8% and an average positivity rate of 31.3% over the last 7 days. It also includes the deaths of 43 more of our fellow Alabamians, taking the overall death toll to 3,985.
Statewide hospitalizations rose to 2,111 today (108 hospitals), an increase of 15 patients compared to yesterday. According to HHS, Alabama’s ICU bed utilization rate now stands at 90.5%, third highest in the nation behind North Dakota (90.8%) and New Mexico (100%). In response, UAB’s Chief of Hospital Medicine announced that the Hospital is reducing elective procedures, expanding capacity in Intensive Care Units and recruiting more staff to keep up with increasing demand. Commenting on the increase of infections due to the Thanksgiving holiday, Dr. Kennedy said, “We are exhausted and it’s only the beginning.”
It is, therefore, no surprise that Governor Ivey officially extended the State mask order to January 22.
Public attention is now understandably focused on vaccinations, but the continued importance of personal responsibility, including masks, cannot be emphasized enough. Quantities of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines will be sufficient to vaccinate 100 million people, less than one-third of our population. If granted authorization, Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca are expected to add 150 million to 200 million doses, which would immunize 110 million to 150 million people, assuming the doses are evenly split between J&J’s single-dose vaccine and Astra’s two-dose regimen.
J&J’s Phase 3 clinical trial is expected to report interim data sometime in January, leading some to speculate that J&J’s shot will get a green-light from the F.D.A. in late January or early February. Meanwhile, AstraZeneca’s U.S.-based clinical trial won’t read out until late-January or early-February, with the potential for emergency-use authorization coming at the end of February or early March.
Unless you are a frontline healthcare worker or work in a nursing facility, it is impossible to predict when you can get vaccinated, but I am confident that vaccinations will be plentiful for everyone by no later than early summer. In the meantime, the frogs will continue to boil. The totals:
11/26 - 2639
11/27 - 917
11/28 - 2119
11/29 - 2236
11/30 - 2295
12/1 - 3376
12/2 - 3928
12/3 - 3531
12/4 - 3840
12/5 - 3390
12/6 - 2288
12/7 - 2335
12/8 - 4436
12/9 - 3522
Counties with at least 100 cases include: Jefferson (543 cases); Madison (309); Mobile (223); Shelby (166); Tuscaloosa (164); Morgan (140); Montgomery (120); DeKalb (120); Marshall (114); Baldwin (113); and Jackson (100).
The most effective solution is to do what every other major industrialized country on earth has done.
Provide financial stimulus to all of their citizens so they can safely quarantine and provide healthcare to every single person.
Australia-$1993 a month
Canada-$1433 a month
Denmark~ up to $3288 a month
France -up to $7575 a month
Germany -up to 7326.78 a month
Ireland- up to $1793.44 a mont
UK-up to $3084 a month
ALL of these countries ALSO provide universal healthcare to all their citizens while typically spending 2x less per capita.
Meanwhile:
-USA-$1200 to last 32 weeks
-Over 100 million without healthcare during an out of control viral pandemic
-Wealthiest country on earth
-Just quickly passed a 740,000,000,000 pentagon military budget though
This should be talked about more Frank.
Appreciate your daily posts. Thank you.