December 8, 2020 - Crashing 4,000 Cases
Crashing 4,000 Cases
December 8, 2020
The pandemic has reached another level in Alabama, as today’s report shattered the previous record for cases reported in a single day - 4,436 cases (incl. 1,218 probables). There were also 10,793 tests, resulting in a 41% positivity rate for the day and 31.7% average positivity rate over the last 7 days.
Hospitalizations also continue to climb to record levels -- currently, 2,096 patients in 107 reporting hospitals statewide. UAB Hospital now cares for a record 140 COVID-19 patients, a net increase of 10 patients compared to 24 hours ago. The Huntsville Hospital Health System (which includes 8 hospitals) has 403 patients, a jump from 194 just a little over 3 weeks ago (November 14).
ADPH released a statement stating that the case count includes two backlogs, totaling 1038 positive PCR results and 473 positive antigen results, which stem from tests performed by two facilities between November 30 and December 5. This is not a “data dump” in the traditional sense because those tests were performed just last week. A positive case from that time period is an active case today.
If you feel you are experiencing whiplash, you are not alone. That’s because the headlines alternate between hopeful signs on vaccines and shocking real-time data on community spread. Although the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have shown success rates (90-95%) that exceed our wildest dreams, the virus is still growing exponentially. It feels like we’re fighting wildfires with a hose. The vaccines will eventually tame the virus but the damage inflicted in the meantime is likely to be devastating.
Speaking of vaccines, a lot happened today. In Britain, vaccinations have now officially begun, and the second patient in the world to receive it (outside of clinical trials) was an 81-year old English gentleman named William Shakespeare. The British press called him The Gentleman of Corona. That would be funny … if it weren’t so tragic.
The Pfizer vaccine was cleared by a key FDA advisory committee, leading to optimism that the first U.S. vaccinations could occur as soon as the end of this week. It was also announced that this vaccine produces stronger protection against COVID-19 within 10 days of the first dose than previously believed. A second dose is still required to be fully immunized.
It’s clear that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, alone, will not be sufficient to extinguish the wildfires because it turns out Pfizer has an obligation to supply only 100 million doses to the U.S. (enough to vaccinate 50 million Americans). The same is true for Moderna. The Trump Administration had an option to purchase 400 million more doses but allowed the options to expire. We are left to hope that Johnson & Johnson, Novavax and Astrazeneca will receive emergency use authorization for their vaccines to make up the difference. That won’t happen until 2021, assuming it happens at all. Here are the 14-day totals:
11/25- 2453
11/26 - 2639
11/27 - 917
11/28 - 2119
11/29 - 2236
11/30 - 2295
12/1 - 3376
12/2 - 3928
12/3 - 3531
12/4 - 3840
12/5 - 3390
12/6 - 2288
12/7 - 2335
12/8 - 4436
Sixteen counties reported more than 100 cases - led by Jefferson County’s 616 cases. All but 2 counties in Alabama (Barbour and Bullock) have 14-day positivity rates exceeding 20%, while 46 counties have rates exceeding 30%, 17 counties exceeding 40% and 7 counties exceeding 50%.