December 6, 2020
Sunday is typically a light-reporting day and that proved true again today. It is a measure of just how fast this virus is spreading that 2,288 cases (incl. 177 probables) could be classified as a “light” day. Arriving on the heels of 5 straight days of 3,300+ cases, it does feel like blessed relief, but the numbers must be placed in proper context. There were only 7,880 tests, well below the 7-day moving average of 9,333 daily tests, so today’s positivity rate remains high (29%) and the 7-day moving average is even higher (32.4%).
Overall for the week, daily reported cases rose 54% since last week; daily reported deaths rose 165% (with 12 more deaths reported today); and confirmed hospitalizations rose 19%.
The most critical data right now are hospitalizations. On an average weekday, as many as 110 Alabama hospitals report their patient volumes to ADPH. Today being Sunday, only 99 hospitals submitted reports, which totalled 1,927 patients statewide. At the rate of 19.5 patients per hospital, this equates to between 2,000 and 2,150 patients, if all hospitals were reporting. That’s almost twice the number of patients being treated in our hospitals 3 weeks ago (1,124 in 98 hospitals on November 14).
Meanwhile, the COVID weekly dashboard for public schools (K-12) was updated on Friday. This is a self-reporting system for students, teachers and staff at 89.5% of the public school systems throughout the State. Overall, 2,502 new cases were reported in 128 school districts, including 5 districts with more than 80 new cases: (1) Jefferson County (157); (2) Baldwin County (104); (3) Shelby County (94); (4) Tuscaloosa County (84); and (5) Elmore County (83). Among suburban school districts within Jefferson County, Hoover had 56 cases; Trussville - 31; Vestavia Hills - 30; Mtn. Brook - 19; and Homewood - 12.
By next week, we should begin to see the full effect of Thanksgiving holidays. I am reminded of the July 4 weekend, when it felt as though we were sitting on a launchpad, preparing for take-off to a frightening new place. I feel the same way about next week … and the rocket fuel for this dangerous flight is again the hospital admission rate. Here are the 14-day totals:
11/23 - 1574
11/24 - 2785
11/25- 2453
11/26 - 2639
11/27 - 917
11/28 - 2119
11/29 - 2236
11/30 - 2295
12/1 - 3376
12/2 - 3928
12/3 - 3531
12/4 - 3840
12/5 - 3390
12/6 - 2288
With 473 more cases, Birmingham’s home county, Jefferson, has a 14-day positivity rate that tops 30% for the first time. The next 9 most populous counties in the State have the following 14-day rates: Mobile (20.7%); Lee, home to Auburn University (24.5%); Montgomery (24.8%); Tuscaloosa, home to the University of Alabama (27.3%); Madison, home to Huntsville, Redstone Arsenal and the Marshall Space Flight Center (28.6%); Baldwin and the Gulf beaches (29.2%); Shelby, with its suburban and exurban communities southeast of Birmingham (30.9%); Calhoun, home to Anniston-Oxford (39.4%); and Morgan, home to Decatur (47.2%).