December 30, 2020
Five days after Christmas, Alabama has recorded 5,016 new cases (incl. 1,782 probables) and 37 more deaths. It is the 2nd time cases have topped 5,000, but it won’t be the last. What’s more, those 5,016 cases resulted from just 7,057 tests, producing an astronomical positivity rate of 71% for the day. When 7 of 10 tests are positive, it’s a clear sign that most persons being tested are experiencing symptoms, and not the asymptomatic carriers who spread more of the disease. To be blunt, we are sitting on a powder keg and we don’t even know it.
Our average positivity rate for the last 7 days, including the holiday weekend, is 41%, second highest in the nation. To convey how bad that is, let’s compare Alabama’s numbers to other Southern states. Six of them - Georgia, Virginia, South Carolina, Florida, Louisiana and North Carolina - have 7-day positivity rates below 15%, while those of Tennessee, Arkansas and Texas range between 15% and 22%. Alabama’s positivity rate is nearly twice that of the next highest Southern state.
ADPH also reported 2,813 current statewide patients, coming from 111 hospitals. According to the Washington Post, Alabama now averages 58 hospital inpatients per 100K population, which ranks 3rd in the country in per capita hospitalizations.
Meanwhile, vaccinations are proceeding much more slowly than expected. As of Sunday (12/27), over 128,000 doses had been allocated to Alabama but only 20,354 persons had been vaccinated - equal to 0.5% of the State’s population and 7% of the 300,000 Alabamians eligible for vaccination in Phase 1a (medical personnel and nursing home residents). To be fair, the holidays have intervened and the Moderna vaccine just arrived last week, but even so, it’s an understatement to say the slow rollout has been maddening.
Alabama’s issues with distribution are indicative of a larger national problem. In the absence of adequate planning or sufficient resources, each state has been left to fend for itself. As recently as mid-December, the Trump Administration touted that 20 million Americans would be vaccinated by the end of the month, but a CDC tracker shows only 2 million have been vaccinated so far. Officials now say they are on track to “allocate” 20 million doses to states by the end of the year, but it’s unclear what that means. Dr. Leana Wen, emergency physician and George Washington University professor, observed that, at the current rate of vaccination, it would take the U.S. 10 years to inoculate 80% of Americans.
If you thought record hospitalizations, near-record cases and disappointing vaccine distributions would be enough to cause Alabama’s governor or health officer to take action or issue a statement today, you would be mistaken. Governor Ivey ignored this news, instead tweeting: “As we begin to celebrate the New Year, remember to be safe on our roads. Wear your seatbelts ...” The totals:
12/17 - 4695
12/18 - 5348
12/19 - 4221
12/20 - 2548
12/21 - 2380
12/22 - 4979
12/23 - 4758
12/24 - 4232
12/25 - 3625
12/26 - 1032
12/27 - 2170
12/28 - 2269
12/29 - 3907
12/30 - 5106
Jefferson County had 990 cases today, the highest total ever recorded by a single county. Mobile County had 282; Madison - 263; Tuscaloosa - 255; and Baldwin - 220. All but 9 of our 67 counties had 14-day positivity rates over 30%, while 41 of 67 counties exceeded 40%, and 14 counties exceeded 50%. Walker, Pickens, Lamar and Marion counties actually reported 14-day rates that topped 60%.