December 28, 2020 - Change is Coming
Change is Coming
December 28, 2020
Statewide hospitalizations catapulted to a new level today - 2,802 patients (108 reporting hospitals), an increase of 217 patients (96 hospitals) since yesterday. Today’s total is nearly triple the number of COVID patients recorded on Election Day. Even before today’s news, Alabama ranked 3rd in the nation in per capita COVID hospitalizations (58 per 100K population), behind only Nevada (65 per 100K) and Arizona (63 per 100K). Both UAB Hospital (207 patients) and Huntsville Hospital (202 patients, part of the Huntsville Hospital Health System, which recorded 401 patients) also reported record levels earlier today.
This dramatic increase coincides with an updated report by the NY Times, which reflects a 90% ICU occupancy rate in Alabama’s hospitals through yesterday. Here are the updated occupancy rates for some of the State’s largest hospitals: St. Vincent’s (Bhm) - 106%; UAB Hospital - 94%; Huntsville Hospital - 87%; Mobile Infirmary - 94%; Thomas Hospital (Fairhope) - 98%; Baptist South (Montgomery) - 100%; Jackson Hospital (Montgomery) - 97%; DCH Health - 94%; Gadsden Regional - 114%; Northeast Alabama (Anniston) - 102%; Cullman Regional - 188%; Southeast Health (Dothan) - 101%; and East Alabama Medical (Opelika) - 100%.
Although the case count was below average - only 2,269 (incl. 609 probables) - there were also fewer than half the daily average of reported tests, indicating that many testing centers were still closed on Sunday. The statewide positivity rate for the day was 52% and the 7-day average remains in the range of 36-38%. Therefore, as soon as testing returns to pre-holiday levels, I expect that new daily cases will probably exceed 4,000 cases per day. After reading that 1.3 million people traveled by air yesterday - the highest number since the COVID pandemic began - it would not be surprising to see daily cases top 5,000 per day by New Year’s.
North Alabama continues to bear the brunt of this pandemic. Thirteen counties with the highest 14-day positivity rates in the State - ranging from 52.5% to 64.8% - are all located north of Birmingham. Marion County (county seat: Hamilton), located in northwest Alabama, has been especially hard-hit. The County is battling a positivity rate above 64% and has lost 40 of its residents to the virus so far. This morning, Marion laid to rest Pastor Mike Stancil of Fulton Bridge Baptist Church in Hamilton, who died after a 6-week battle with the disease. He was 49 years old. The Church’s deacon announced from the pulpit that in-person services will be suspended until the second Sunday in January. The totals:
12/15 - 3638
12/16 - 4107
12/17 - 4695
12/18 - 5348
12/19 - 4221
12/20 - 2548
12/21 - 2380
12/22 - 4979
12/23 - 4758
12/24 - 4232
12/25 - 3625
12/26 - 1032
12/27 - 2170
12/28 - 2269
Jefferson County continues to lead the State in reported cases with 336, but that number has mercifully declined after topping 900 on December 23. Mobile County is second with 238 cases, followed by Madison County with 179 cases. Every county but Barbour County has a 14-day positivity rate over 20%, while 57 counties have rates that exceed 30%, 30 counties exceed 40%; and 14 counties exceed 50%.