December 21, 2020 - Record Hospitalizations

Record Hospitalizations

December 21, 2020

I want to begin tonight by giving a long-overdue shout out to David Marconnet, the founder of BamaTracker.com, who had the talent and foresight to create a top-flight COVID data tracking site that is focused on Alabama. BamaTracker’s presentation is clear, straightforward and objective, and it forms the backbone for my daily newsletter. My goal is to make sense of the data and to put it in context. Without David, I would be unable to do what I do. 

Yesterday, I said we might exceed 2,500 hospitalizations during Christmas week. It took just one day. With 105 hospitals reporting today (8 more than yesterday), the number of confirmed COVID patients rose 189 to a total of 2,526 confirmed patients, the highest ever recorded. Alabama’s ICU occupancy rate exceeds 90%, the 2nd highest in the nation, and that percentage is likely rising.

The daily cases, however, were lower, as they were yesterday - 2,380 cases (incl. 187 probables). Again, the reason is because the report relates to data received on Sunday, a day when some testing centers are closed. I’d like to be proven wrong, but I believe the drop we have seen over the last two days is only temporary. The daily case count should return to elevated levels as the week progresses. There were just 6,411 reported tests today, so the one-day positivity rate is over 37%. The 7-day moving average for positivity is 36.6%.

The per capita rate of daily cases is perhaps the best measure of how rapidly infection is spreading in a State, while the per capita rate of hospitalizations is the best measure of severity. According to Johns Hopkins, Alabama has the 7th highest per capita rate of new cases in the nation over the last 7 days - 78.1 per 100K population. Leading the nation in that category is Tennessee, with an average 132.1 new daily cases per 100K population. No other state is even close to our northern neighbor, which may explain why Alabama’s northern counties are showing such a high rate of infection. 

Alabama also ranks 3rd in the nation in the per capita rate of current hospitalizations - 48 per 100K population, behind only Nevada (66/100K) and Arizona (57/100K). After today’s spike of 189 net patients, we may soon surpass Arizona in that all-important category.

Alabama is clearly hurting more than ever. Until vaccinations come to the rescue, we have the power to do this:  wear a mask, stay at home whenever possible, be responsible - Love thy Neighbor, in other words.  If friends or family push back, share these statistics. More cases lead to more hospitalizations. More hospitalizations lead to needless deaths. And every person who dies of this disease will diminish our humanity if we refuse to do what we can to prevent it.  The totals:

12/8  -  4436

12/9  -  3522

12/10 - 4735

12/11 - 3853

12/12 - 4066

12/13 - 2790

12/14 - 2264

12/15 - 3638

12/16 - 4107

12/17 - 4695

12/18 - 5348

12/19 - 4221

12/20 - 2548

12/21 - 2380

In 54 of Alabama’s 67 counties, the 14-day positivity rate is now over 30%. In 26 counties, it is over 40%. And in 12 counties, it is over 50%. When one in every two or three tests comes back positive, then only the sickest persons are being tested, which means the documented positive cases barely scratch the surface.