December 18, 2020 - Exponential Growth
Exponential Growth
December 18, 2020
I still remember my shock when Alabama’s daily case count exceeded 1,000 for the first time. It was June 14 and the daily total rose by 125 that day. Then, on July 9, shortly after the long holiday weekend, daily cases broke through 2,000. The summer surge peaked at 2,439 cases per day two weeks later, before declining steadily throughout August and September. Not until the Tuesday after Thanksgiving - December 1 - did we exceed 3,000 cases in a single day. On December 8, just 10 days ago, we crossed 4,000.
Today, we hit 5,348 cases (incl. 1,166 probables), 653 more than yesterday.
Alabama’s positivity rate was 44.4%, the 4th consecutive day it exceeded 40%. The 7-day average has exceeded 30% every day since the Monday after Thanksgiving, and it was 35.6% today. Only 3 states - Idaho, South Dakota and Pennsylvania - have slightly higher positivity rates.
Hospitalizations, which typically lag new cases by several days, continue to climb - 2,447 today (108 hospitals) compared to 2,425 yesterday (105 hospitals). According to The Covid Tracking Project, Alabama has the 3rd highest per capita hospitalization rate in the nation (50/100K population), and our ICU occupancy rate is higher than any state’s other than New Mexico.
At a morning news conference, representatives of 5 Birmingham-area hospitals (Children’s of Alabama, UAB Hospital, Grandview, Ascension St. Vincent’s and Shelby Baptist) all said they are treating record numbers of COVID-patients. For example, UAB now has 175 patients, up 130% since Thanksgiving. “We’re really stretching our capability as a medical system. The next two weeks are gonna be critical for us”, said Dr. Jeremy Rogers, a physician at Grandview.
I wish I knew why Alabama is doing so much worse now than our sister Southern states. Only Tennessee has seen more per capita cases than Alabama has during the last 7 days, and that can be explained by the fact that our northern neighbor is testing at 4x the rate of Alabama. Although we trail 4 Southern states in per capita deaths over the last 7 days (TN, AR, MS and TX), we may catch them soon, since our per capita hospitalizations are higher than all four of them.
So, what may be causing Alabama’s infection rate to skyrocket? Is it because the statewide mask order is not being enforced? Are there more indoor gatherings than in other states? Whatever the reason, we are staring at an unprecedented challenge as Christmas week approaches. Please, please be careful. The totals:
12/5 - 3390
12/6 - 2288
12/7 - 2335
12/8 - 4436
12/9 - 3522
12/10 - 4735
12/11 - 3853
12/12 - 4066
12/13 - 2790
12/14 - 2264
12/15 - 3638
12/16 - 4107
12/17 - 4695
12/18 - 5348
Jefferson County reported a record 956 cases today and a 14-day positivity rate of 37.1%. Madison County reported a record 500 cases and a 34.7% positivity rate. Mobile (249); Etowah (record 248); Shelby (record 220); Montgomery (212); and Tuscaloosa (213) each reported more than 200 cases. Eight more counties reported more than 100 cases.