December 11, 2020 - Jefferson County

Jefferson County

December 11. 2020

Alabama’s COVID numbers are bad again today, but mercifully, they are no worse than yesterday. In fact, the data improved marginally. There were 3,853 cases (incl. 966 probables) and 12,077 tests, a 31.9% one-day positivity rate and 32.4% positivity rate over the last 7 days. Statewide hospitalizations actually declined for the first time in more than a week, dropping from 2,170 to 2,111, although there were only 103 reporting hospitals compared to 105 yesterday. There were also 52 more deaths, which is one grim marker that did not improve. 

For a change of pace, I have decided to focus on Jefferson County today. The County Health Dept publishes the cumulative per capita number of cases by geographic region within the County. The regions correspond to zip codes, not municipal boundaries. For instance, Mtn Brook, Redmont and Forest Park are combined into a single region (35213; 35223; and 35222). Cahaba Heights and Liberty Park (35242 and 35243) constitute another region, although they are not municipalities. Hoover is split into 2 regions - the Bluff Park/Patton Chapel area (35226) is separate from Riverchase/Galleria (35244). 

Interestingly, the region with the best per capita infection rate in the County, by far, is Cahaba Heights/Liberty Park at 145/100K population. Next best, a group of regions in the city limits of Birmingham, including Downtown/North Bham/Norwood (390/100K); UAB/Glen Iris (410/100K); and Ensley (415/100K). Then, certain suburban communities south of Birmingham form another group - Homewood/Green Springs (430/100K); Riverchase/Galleria (438/100K); Vestavia (440/100K); and MtnBrook/Redmont/Forest Park (442/100K).  Bluff Park/Patton Chapel (467/100K) and Irondale/Leeds (468/100K), which are further away from Birmingham, form a group with nearly identical infection rates. Finally, outliers in the worst shape include Trussville (586/100K) and Gardendale/Mt Olive/Morris (677/100K). 

The COVID dashboard for Alabama public schools (K-12) also was updated this afternoon. This self-reporting system saw greater compliance this week, as 95% (136 of 143) of school districts reported 3,255 new cases among students and staff. Those school districts with the most cases include:  Jefferson County (188; 31 more than last week);  St. Clair County (160; 113 more) ; Tuscaloosa County (123; 39 more); Shelby County (120; 26 more); and City of Huntsville (112; did not report last week). St. Clair County schools were especially hard hit, with a 293% increase since last week.

Among municipal school districts within Jefferson County, Hoover had 57 new cases this week (+1 since last week); Trussville had 47 (+16); Birmingham had 38 (-6); Mtn Brook had 27 (+8); Homewood had 22 (+10); and Vestavia Hills had 21 (-9). Adjusted for student enrollment (source for enrollment: Niche.com), these districts present a different picture for the week, ranking from best to worst as follows: (1) Birmingham - 1.64 per 1000 students; (2) Vestavia Hills - 2.93 per 1000 students; (3) Hoover - 4.08 per 1000 students; (4) Homewood - 5.13 per 1000 students; (5) Mtn Brook - 6.21 per 1000 students; and (6) Trussville - 10.01 per 1000 students. Note: an earlier version of this post misstated the per capita rate for the Vestavia Hill school system. That error has now been corrected.

If you are a data nerd like me, it is interesting to compare the Jefferson County school district data to the zip code data. I’ll save that for a later day. Now for the 14-day totals:

11/28 - 2119

11/29 - 2236

11/30 - 2295

12/1  -  3376

12/2  -  3928

12/3  -  3531

12/4  -  3840

12/5  -  3390

12/6  - 2288

12/7  -  2335

12/8  -  4436

12/9  -  3522

12/10 - 4735

12/11 - 3853

Jefferson County led the way with 747 cases, followed by Madison County - 344; Mobile County - 233; Baldwin County - 201; Shelby County - 157; Tuscaloosa County - 169; Etowah County - 126; Calhoun County -124; and Morgan County -130.