August 9, 2021
The Delta surge in Alabama, so far, shows no signs of abating. ADPH reported 4,877 more new cases this morning (covering 2 days), leading the State Health Officer to describe the graph of new infections as “almost vertical.” The 7-day moving average has risen to 3,282 new cases per day and the statewide test positivity rate is 24.7%. Compared to the December-January surge, the current 7-day moving average has reached 77% of the highest peak back then (4,280 on January 10).
Meanwhile, hospitalizations continue to rise - now up to 2,134 confirmed patients in 106 reporting hospitals (20.2 patients per hospital). Today’s hospitalization rate is exactly 67% of the prior peak of 30.3 patients per hospital, which coincidentally also occurred on January 10. It is not surprising that the hospitalization rate (67% of prior peak) trails the rate of new daily reported cases (77% of prior peak). I suspect the difference is attributable to the fact that nearly all current hospitalizations are unvaccinated, while some of the less severe breakthrough cases are vaccinated individuals.
For the week ending August 5, Alabama’s average ICU occupancy rate is 90%, compared to the national average of 68%. The average ICU occupancy rate for 7 Mobile hospitals is 96%, while the average for 9 Birmingham hospitals is 87%.
If you ever had any doubt that the Delta surge is fueled by low vaccination rates, consider this. The top 11 states for per capita infections are, in order: Louisiana, Florida, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Missouri, Georgia, Tennessee & Texas. What do these states have in common - aside from all of them having flagship universities in the SEC (including Texas & Oklahoma)? Fewer than 50% of their residents have been vaccinated - indeed all but Florida have vaccinated fewer than 45% of their residents.
This week marks the start of the 2021-22 academic year in Alabama. Contrary to the recommendations of the CDC, the ADPH, the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) and the American Medical Association (to name a few), two-thirds of the public school districts in the State will not require students or teachers to wear masks, even though children under the age of 12 cannot get vaccinated and many therapeutic options open to adults with Covid-19 (like remdesivir) are unavailable to minors.
It is unknown how many children may be at higher risk from the virus because of medical conditions, but Dr. Dennis Kuo, former chairman of AAP’s Council on Children With Disabilities, estimates that 19% of children in the United States have special health care needs. During the last week of July, the number of Covid-19 cases among U.S. children doubled from 38,654 to 71,726 the prior week, according to AAP.
So, how and when will the Delta surge end? Some experts suggest it may quickly collapse, pointing to the U.K. There, the Delta variant caused daily cases to spike from 2,000 per day to 50,000 per day in June, then fell sharply for about 10 days, only to rebound and plateau at an elevated level of more than 25,000 cases per day.
It is not clear how the U.K. example would play out in the U.S., particularly in the South. For one thing, the U.S. is the only industrialized nation to see no decoupling between Delta cases and hospitalizations. Our winter peak of 250,000 cases/day and 130,000 hospitalizations, is remarkably similar in proportion to the current ratio of 110,000 cases/ day and 63,000 hospitalizations. In the U.K. over 70% of adults have received at least one dose and 60% are fully vaccinated. Meanwhile, vaccinations have hit a wall of resistance in certain parts of the U.S., particularly the South, where the fully vaccinated rate is stuck between 35% and 45%. Unless the U.S. can reach herd immunity through vaccination, low vaccination areas, like Alabama, risk persistent community spread. That outcome, in turn, could lead to future waves fueled by Delta and other variants. Totals:
7/26 - 1,403
7/27 - 2,667
7/28 - 2,726
7/29 - 2,730
7/31 - 5,414
8/1 - 1,798
8/2 - 1,705
8/3 - 3,307
8/4 - 3,399
8/5 - 3,817
8/6 - 3,685
8/7 - 3,891
8/9 - 4,877
Thank you Frank!!