August 7, 2021 - Preventable

Preventable

August 7, 2021

ADPH reported 3,891 more cases in Alabama this morning, the 5th straight day we have exceeded 3,300 daily cases. The last time that happened was during the first week of January. In fact, the 7-day moving average for the State is 3,086 new cases per day, our highest since January 15.

South Alabama remains the State’s hottest area of infection. Mobile County actually ranks 9th in per capita cases among all 3,100 counties, parishes and boroughs in the entire United States, with 1,016 cases per 100K population in the last 7 days. Baldwin County is not far behind with 997 cases per 100K. In other words, one of every 100 men, women and children in Mobile and Baldwin counties has tested positive for Covid in just one week.

Over the same 7-day period, Jefferson County (Birmingham) has seen 441 cases per 100K, and Madison County (Huntsville) has reported 287 cases per 100K. The infection rate for both counties is higher than the national average (224 per 100K) but lower than the average in Alabama (469 per 100K). Cullman County, located about halfway between Birmingham and Huntsville, has reported 392 cases per 100K this week, somewhat below the statewide average. But, that is expected to change when former President Trump brings his mask-free rally to town on August 21.

Yesterday, there were 1,923 confirmed patients in 104 reporting hospitals (18.5 patients per hospital). Earlier this week, executives from seven Birmingham-area hospitals held a joint press conference, pleading with the public to get vaccinated and wear masks. As of Wednesday, St. Vincent’s was treating 100 patients, up 700% in 3 weeks, while Grandview experienced a 500% increase in patients. The executives noted that most people hospitalized are unvaccinated and under the age of 60. As Grandview’s director of clinical services put it, “This is absolutely heartbreaking … It’s tragic. And unfortunately, it’s largely preventable.”

Largely preventable. Yet, despite overwhelming evidence establishing the effectiveness of masks, at least one large Birmingham suburban public school system - Vestavia Hills - is moving forward with plans to allow children to go without them (Homewood, Mountain Brook and Birmingham will require masks, while Hoover will require them the first 30 days. Trussville has yet to make a final decision.) Last year on this date, the 7-day average of reported cases was less than half what it is today, the original virus strain was less than half as transmissible as the Delta strain, and school systems wrestled with the decision of in-person vs remote learning. Next week, the students of Vestavia Hills will attend school in-person without masks and without contact tracing.

In the final analysis, the Delta surge remains a pandemic of the unvaccinated. Two of the most infectious states, Louisiana and Florida, have seen increased numbers of sick children. In both New Orleans and Orlando, for instance, doctors have reported record pediatric infections. Medical experts believe the surge is due to the variant's hyper transmissibility — how easy it is for the virus to circulate in an unvaccinated population. Of course, children throughout the country do not have the option to get vaccinated. And here, where young adults are the most unvaccinated in the nation, children pose a unique threat to their parents. The totals:

7/24 - 1,888

7/25 - 1,536

7/26 - 1,403

7/27 - 2,667

7/28 - 2,726

7/29 - 2,730

7/31 - 5,414

8/1 - 1,798

8/2 - 1,705

8/3 - 3,307

8/4 - 3,399

8/5 - 3,817

8/6 - 3,685

8/7 - 3,891

Note: an early version of this newsletter implied that Trussville schools had made a final decision on masks. While Trussville has stated that masks are optional “for now”, it indicated its decision is not yet final.