August 6, 2022 - School Begins

School Begins

August 6, 2022

For the first time in three years, the Covid pandemic in the South is receding just as the school year begins. Up to now, as in past summers, the South has borne the worst brunt of the pandemic - in fact, of the 16 states with the highest current rate of infection, 10 of them are located in the South, including Alabama (ranked 10th). However, every one of those Southern states (except Louisiana) saw conditions improve this week, which is very good news in a region where schools typically open in early August.  

In Alabama, reported cases declined by 15% this week, roughly twice as fast as the national average. While cases are dropping fastest in the South, other regions of the country are also trending better. Only 7 states showed a week-to-week increase in reported cases of at least 5%, while 37 states showed a week-to-week decline of at least 5%. 

Hospitals in Alabama also are getting a reprieve, as statewide Covid-related hospitalizations dropped from 836 patients last Saturday to 773 patients today, a 7% decline. As a result, school officials can anticipate a reduction in the intense pressure they endured when schools reopened in 2020 and 2021.

Prior surges in the United States have been preceded by a dramatic surge in Europe, which is why it’s so important to be mindful of what is trending there. Over the last 14 days, the per capita rate of reported cases in Europe has dropped from 59 cases per 100K population to 32 per 100K, a decline of 46%. Ireland, France, Spain, Portugal, Switzerland and the U.K. have all seen their cases plummet by more than 50% in the last 14 days. This makes me optimistic for the fall here in the U.S.

These favorable trends in the United States and Europe hopefully will buy time for the introduction of the new vaccine booster that will target Omicron sub-variants, including BA.4 and BA.5. The bivalent booster is expected to be rolled out in September, one month ahead of schedule, and is currently recommended only for adults over 50 and those 12 and older with immune deficiencies. However, federal authorities are generally expected to expand their recommendation to include all adults, which is the same recommendation for receiving the first booster. 

The totals:  

7/23 - not reporting

7/24 - not reporting

7/25 - 5,727

7/26 - 2,884

7/27 - 2,765

7/28 - 2,685

7/29 - 2,651

7/30 - not reporting

7/31 - not reporting

8/1   - 4,364

8/2 -   2,239

8/3 -   3,037

8/4 -   2,407

8/5 -   2,140