August 4, 2020 - No Time For Hubris
No Time For Hubris
August 4, 2020
It’s another day to be cautiously optimistic. That makes two in a row. Although there were 33 more deaths (incl. 2 probables), which is higher than our 7-day average, the death rate is a lagging indicator and we can’t be certain when those deaths occurred. It is great news that there were only 1,041 reported cases (incl. 78 probables). That is the lowest number of cases since early July. The 7-day average of new cases declined by only 1.6% (1,622 daily average) because the number of cases reported last Tuesday were similarly low. Regardless, if this trend continues for the next 2-3 days, then the 7-day average will drop rapidly.
It is noteworthy that 8,172 daily tests were reported, a slight increase from 7,880 yesterday. That means slightly more tests resulted in fewer positive cases and, of course, that should translate into a lower positivity rate. Sure enough, our weekly positivity rate dropped from 20.6% to 19.94%. In my column yesterday, I remarked that Alabama had passed Mississippi to take the lead with the highest positivity rate in the country. Well, our western neighbor has reclaimed that dreadful mantle with a positivity rate exceeding 23%. Alabama is now second in the nation but, at least, our rate is headed in the right direction.
So, while we have reason to be hopeful, it is no time to celebrate. Almost 5 million Americans, including nearly 100,000 Alabamians, have contracted this disease over the last 5 months. Here in Alabama, it is a relief to see the daily increase in cases decline significantly from the 2,000+ level that we saw just two days ago. But, it was not long ago when we were shocked to see more than 1,000 new cases in a single day. Simply put, “mission accomplished” is not a term that should spring to mind when considering a positivity rate that is still just a tick below 20%.
As schools open in the coming days, it is important to remain vigilant about mask-wearing and physical distancing (kudos to Gov. Ivey for extending the mask order through August). This is a pernicious, unforgiving virus that does not suffer hubris easily. With self-discipline and humility, we have a chance to keep this virus in check until science discovers a vaccine. Here are today’s numbers:
7/22 - 1,455
7/23 - 2,399
7/24 - 1,793
7/25 - 2,125
7/26 - 1,164
7/27 - 1,821
7/28 - 1,251
7/29 - 1,416
7/30 - 1,980
7/31 - 1,961
8/1 - 1,646
8/2 - 2,095
8/3 - 1,217
8/4 - 1,041
All the most populous counties reported a lower positivity rate than the day before. Indeed, only 5 of Alabama’s 76 counties reported a higher positivity rate. JeffCo led the way with 180 cases.