August 30, 2020 - Data is the Foundation of Science
Data is the Foundation of Science
August 30, 2020
One day after ADPH asserted that 1,300 out of 1,700 new cases were the result of backlog from one newly reporting lab, a claim amplified by local media, Alabama was saddled with 1,346 more cases (incl. 174 probables). This makes the 5th consecutive day, and 6th out of the last seven, where the case count has exceeded 1,000. The 7-day average of new cases is now back up to 1,454, the highest since Aug. 10. There were also 10 more deaths.
It has been quite awhile since I compared Alabama’s case count to other states and countries. Based on total COVID-19 cases, Alabama ranks 14th with 125,235 total cases. Based on per capita cases, Alabama ranks 5th, behind only Louisiana, Florida, Mississippi and Arizona. Alabama has now seen almost twice as many cases as Japan (66,423) and half again as many as the entire nation of China (85,031).
Reported tests declined to 5,070. The 7-day average of tests is now 7,940 per day, which is as low as the average has been since the week of July 4. Consequently, our 7-day positivity rate rose to between 17.13% and 18.13%, depending on how probable cases are treated. Only SC and SD currently have weekly positivity rates that are worse.
Current confirmed hospitalizations have declined to 969, based on 96 reporting hospitals. That is the lowest number of confirmed statewide hospital patients since the week of July 4. On a typical weekday, ADPH will receive reports from 105-107 hospitals, so I anticipate hospitalizations would be over 1,000 if the drop-off in weekend reporting were taken into account.
Unvarnished data is the foundation of science. To be credible, data must not be politicized. That is especially important in coming weeks and months as clinical trials of possible vaccines reach their culmination. Therefore, I was dismayed to read the FDA Commissioner’s statement that his agency would be willing to approve a coronavirus vaccine before Phase 3 clinical trials were complete if the agency found it “appropriate” to do so. At a time when 23% of Americans in a recent poll said they would not get a COVID-19 vaccination under any circumstances, comments like those from the FDA Commissioner, a political appointee, are not helpful.
Over nearly 4 months of daily reporting and analysis of Alabama’s data, I have tried my best to remain objective. After a steady decline of infections in late July and early August, there has been an undeniable surge in new cases the last two weeks. Bad news is no easier to deliver than it is to hear, but I am determined to follow the path wherever the data lead. Let’s hope for better news tomorrow. The totals:
8/17 - 571
8/18 - 1,358
8/19 - 1,117
8/20 - 971
8/21 - 1,183
8/22 - 900
8/23 - 528
8/24 - 1,650
8/25 - 532
8/26 - 2,012
8/27 - 1,769
8/28 - 1,162
8/29 - 1,704
8/30 - 1,346
For the first time ever, Shelby Co. led the State in new cases with 146, followed by Jefferson Co. with 145 and Baldwin Co. with 101. Shelby and Chilton (43) counties set new individual records.