August 3, 2021
Yesterday, I promised to set the record straight on hospitalizations as soon as I could. Instead of 1,883 patients in 103 hospitals, as ADPH initially reported yesterday, the revised number for August 2 is 1,584 patients (104 reporting hospitals). Today, there are 1,694 patients (107 reporting hospitals), or 15.8 patients per hospital. At this rate, we should reach ADPH’s previously reported 1,883 patients by the end of the week.
ADPH’s report today is especially distressing for a different reason. There were 3,307 new positive cases reported today, the highest number of cases in a single day since January. One month ago - on July 5 - there were just 121 new cases in the entire state, less than 1/25th of the level reported today. Dr. Michael Chang, the Chief Medical Officer at the University of South Alabama Hospital in Mobile, had this to say: “On any given morning, we’ve got 20, 25, 30 patients in the Emergency Department waiting for beds to open up. On the pediatric side ... in the last 12 months, our pediatric services diagnosed 500 cases of COVID in children. In the last five days we’ve diagnosed 100.”
It is really hard to make sense of all this. As a firm believer in the life-saving nature of the vaccines, I know I tend to see the COVID world in absolute terms. No vaccine is 100% effective but the mRNA vaccines have proven to be close to 90% effective in trial after trial. The Delta variant undeniably produces more breakthrough infections, but it is important to keep this phenomenon in perspective.
Perhaps the most sensational example of breakthrough infections is what happened in Provincetown, Mass. last month. On the surface, the numbers look frightening. Nearly 1000 COVID cases were reported stemming from a 2-week period when thousands of people from all over the country visited the town. Of those cases, 75% were fully vaccinated and 7 were hospitalized. But, here’s the thing - Provincetown was not a controlled study. It was a case of 60,000 mostly gay men who came to this resort town to celebrate and 95% of them were vaccinated. About 750 vaccinated and 250 unvaccinated individuals tested positive. And, according to reports, virtually none of them wore a mask.
This means that 750/57000 vaccinated men tested positive, or 1.3%, while 250/3000 unvaccinated folks tested positive, or 8.3%. In other words, being vaccinated gave you more than 6-fold protection against COVID than being unvaccinated. This is similar to the figures published in the early spring of 2021, before the Delta variant was discovered. As for hospitalization, only 6 vaccinated cases had to be hospitalized out of 750 cases - or 0.8% of cases. Historically, 5% of COVID cases have resulted in hospitalization in the U.S., so that’s a 9-fold improvement.
If you are a regular reader of this newsletter, chances are you were fully vaccinated long ago, so I know I am preaching to the choir (as the son of a clergyman, I’m okay with that). My point is that vaccinations are not perfect, but they work as they were intended. They prevent the most severe cases and they keep people alive. In fact, Dr. Scott Harris, Alabama’s State Health Officer disclosed today that 99% of the 2,379 COVID deaths reported in the state from January 19 to June 30 were unvaccinated. Only 25 of those deaths were people who had been vaccinated.
Here is my take. If you are vaccinated, you must still use common sense. If you wear a mask indoors and in large groups, you have little to worry about. You can take calculated risks, you can travel, and you can enjoy life. Don’t be afraid. If, on the other hand, you are not vaccinated and don’t use common sense, the Delta variant may have other plans for you. That is what we are seeing right now in Alabama.
In my view, where the rubber hits the road is the question of how to protect children until they can get vaccinated. Until that happens, masks are the only protection they’ve got. Some anti-maskers take the position that children are immune from severe COVID. In the age of Delta and potentially worse variants to come, just ask Univ. of South Alabama Hospital’s Dr. Chang if he agrees. Do you really want to take that chance with your children? The totals:
7/20 - 1,391
7/21 - 1,632
7/22 - 1,567
7/23 - 1,733
7/24 - 1,888
7/25 - 1,536
7/26 - 1,403
7/27 - 2,667
7/28 - 2,726
7/29 - 2,730
7/31 - 5,414
8/1 - 1,798
8/2 - 1,705
8/3 - 3,307