August 3, 2020
I am delighted to report some good news today. There were 1,217 new cases statewide (incl. 101 probables) and 6 deaths (incl. 2 probables). That is the lowest daily case total since July 25. The 7-day average of cases declined by 5%, from 1,739 to 1,650. This comes as a welcome relief after yesterday’s total of 2,095.
The number of tests also dropped from 8,635 to 7,880, resulting in a tiny reduction in the 7-day average of less than 1%. Any day when the daily average of cases declines at a faster rate than the decline in the daily average of tests is a good day. As a result, the weekly positivity rate dropped by a percentage point from 21.6% to 20.6%.
It bears repeating that the weekly positivity rate measures the relationship between positive cases and testing, and is considered the best indicator of community spread. A positivity rate below 5% is what every state and country strives for and only eighteen states have achieved that goal. With our 21.6% weekly positivity rate yesterday, Alabama officially passed Mississippi as the worst state in the country for community spread. It will take a lot more than one good day to make a difference, but one good day can lead to another and another.
At a very informative and fascinating press conference this morning, UAB and ADPH announced the launch of GuideSafe, a multitool technology platform that is intended to provide the means to safely open college campuses across the State. When many colleges around the country have opted to open virtually, Alabama hopes that GuideSafe will make it possible for students to return to campus safely by employing state-of-the-art technology to enable real-time health assessments and ongoing monitoring of exposure and risks. Alabama will receive a lot of attention for being the first state to apply exposure notification technology developed jointly by Google and Apple. Here is the link for more information: https://www.uab.edu/news/campus/item/11461-adph-uab-evolving-campus-entry-efforts-with-launch-of-multifunctional-guidesafetm-platform
To me, UAB’s most hopeful announcement was the development of a comprehensive new process for testing students prior to returning to campus. The UA System will open 13 new testing locations across the State in addition to existing locations on the campuses in Birmingham and Tuscaloosa (out-of-state students will be mailed testing kits). Using nasal swabs and a test pooling approach developed in-house, UAB is confident that its testing capacity will increase by ten-fold, leading to much faster turnaround times without sacrificing accuracy. It will therefore be mandatory for every student at a UA System campus to be tested before returning to campus. If UAB’s claim of reduced turnaround times for test results is proven to be correct, ADPH expects to employ this process for testing the public at large.
UAB and ADPH deserve tremendous credit for boldness, creativity and hard work. In the final analysis, however, COVID-19 will be defeated only if individual behavior changes - that means greater use of masks and physical distancing. And, that’s why the bullhorn we use every day to influence our friends and family is so important. Here are the totals:
7/21 - 1,467
7/22 - 1,455
7/23 - 2,399
7/24 - 1,793
7/25 - 2,125
7/26 - 1,164
7/27 - 1,821
7/28 - 1,251
7/29 - 1,416
7/30 - 1,980
7/31 - 1,961
8/1 - 1,646
8/2 - 2,095
8/3 - 1,217
I’m pleased to report Mobile only had 88 cases today. That is a relief after Mobile totaled 914 cases in the last two days. JeffCo (209) was the only county with more than 100 cases today.