August 29, 2021 - We're Not There Yet

We're Not There Yet

August 29, 2021

Last night, I wrote that Alabama endured 6,207 cases on Friday and 11,223 more cases on Saturday. I wrote that because (i) the table on Tab 5 of the ADPH dashboard indeed showed a 6,207 increase on Friday and (ii) the ADPH homepage separately showed 688,018 cases since the start of the pandemic, an increase of 11,223 from the prior day. I therefore made the assumption that 11,223 was a single-day increase on top of the 6,207 cases reported on Friday. No ADPH explanatory notice accompanied the totals.

I now believe that 11,223 was a two-day total which includes Friday’s total, not a one-day total. I believe that because the NYTimes and Washington Post tracking services updated Alabama’s totals overnight and they treated 11,223 as a two-day increase. I also believe it because it makes more sense. Never before has Alabama seen its cases increase by as much as 11,223 over two consecutive days, much less a single day. I regret that the significance of such a two-day increase is overshadowed by the fact that I interpreted it as a single-day increase.

The Delta surge is causing Alabama’s daily case count to rise faster than ever before, but not by 11,223 in a single day. We may get there eventually, but we’re not there yet. I apologize for the hair-on-fire alarm this caused. I don’t understand why the ADPH dashboard doesn’t post each day’s new cases in bold numbers on its homepage, right beside the total cases since the start of the pandemic. Instead, ADPH makes you work to come up with the right number. Last night, I should have waited for independent confirmation before delivering that news. I’ll try to do better next time.