August 29, 2020 - Enough With the Data Dumps
Enough With the Data Dumps
August 29, 2020
New case totals were high again today, but ADPH has asked us to withhold judgment for technical reasons. The daily total is 1,704 cases (incl. 143 probables), which increases the 7-day average of cases to 1,337. The 7-day average reached a low of 847 (including probables) on August 17 and has climbed steadily ever since. It’s been reported that 1,297 of today’s cases consist of backlog from one lab (since 8/1) that recently “onboarded” with ADPH. One local news outlet suggests this is indicative of a one-day phenomenon and should, therefore, be discounted.
I won’t question the veracity of this report for now, although it is worth pointing out that the average number of new cases for the previous three days is 1,658 - pretty close to 1,704 today. More importantly, I have to wonder why, if this one single lab’s decision to start reporting numbers to ADPH has so much impact, then why hasn’t this lab been reporting to ADPH all along. What were the positive numbers from that lab before Aug. 1? How many other labs out there are not reporting results to ADPH? Are we seeing just the tip of an iceberg?
There were 10,812 reported tests today, 55,895 for the week, which computes to a 7-day average of 7,985. We reached a peak 7-day average of 13,330 tests per day on August 20 and the trend has been downhill ever since. As a result, our average positivity rate for the week is 15.72%, which is higher than all but 2 states reported yesterday - SC (23.89%) and SD (17.82% - bike week). For the record, the last day our positivity rate was higher than Mississippi was August 10.
And let’s not fail to acknowledge that 45 more deaths were reported today. That is more Alabamians who died than on any single day (other than 7/15, 7/22 and 8/11) since the pandemic arrived in Alabama almost 6 months ago.
Current confirmed hospitalizations fell under 1,000 for the first time since July 5. Ordinarily, I would be ecstatic about that news. However, when I learned that only 95 hospitals filed reports with ADPH, I had to wonder how many COVID-19 patients are being treated in the 10-15 hospitals that did not report.
So, there you have it. I may withhold judgment on the report of new cases but I am increasingly skeptical of the excuses we get from authorities and disgusted by the complacency I see from local media. The totals:
8/16 - 853
8/17 - 571
8/18 - 1,358
8/19 - 1,117
8/20 - 971
8/21 - 1,183
8/22 - 900
8/23 - 528
8/24 - 1,650
8/25 - 532
8/26 - 2,012
8/27 - 1,769
8/28 - 1,162
8/29 - 1,704
Jefferson (266), Lee (153), Shelby (111) and Tuscaloosa (109) counties each exceeded 100 cases. No word on whether the numbers out of Lee and Tuscaloosa counties include students.