August 28, 2021 - Chickens Have Come Home to Roost

Chickens Have Come Home to Roost

[An earlier version of this letter indicated that new daily cases in Alabama increased by 11,223 on Saturday. In fact, they increased by that number over two days - Friday and Saturday - which is the largest increase over two consecutive days since the start of the pandemic. The author refers you to his subsequent letter, released on August 29,2021, entitled,”We’re Not There Yet”]

August 28, 2021

When I last wrote to you on Thursday, I said we had reached a pivotal moment in Alabama - that is, would we follow the example of the U.K. and the State of Missouri and begin to see our Delta Covid cases plateau? Or would the extraordinarily fertile breeding ground created by our unprecedented low vaccination rate send us over the edge into uncharted territory? In the last two days, we received a resounding answer.

On Friday, ADPH reported a total of 6,207 new cases. Today, ADPH disclosed that Alabama has sustained 11,223 new cases over a two-day period that includes Friday’s 6,207 cases. On top of that, the previously reported total for the 3 days, ending Thursday, was adjusted upward. Instead of 11,142 cases, the adjusted number for those 3 days is 12,785, including 3,701 on Tuesday, 4,086 on Wednesday and 4,998 on Thursday. Bottom line: the 7-day average of new reported cases in Alabama is now 4,273 cases per day, equalling Alabama’s highest 7-day average last January.

And then there is this - 166 more Alabamians have died from Covid since my letter to you 2 days ago, bringing the State’s overall total to 12,219.

Only 96 hospitals reported their admissions today, 10-15 fewer hospitals than usual. They had 2,623 confirmed patients or 27.4 patients per hospital, the same rate as Thursday. With these devastating daily case counts, however, it is inevitable that the hospitalization rate will surpass the winter peak of 30.3 patients per hospital. A large new British study published in The Lancet found that Delta causes more severe illness than other variants do. “The main takeaway is that if you have an unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated population, then an outbreak of Delta can lead to a higher burden on hospitals, on health care, than an Alpha outbreak would,” according to the study’s senior statistician.

In an emotional plea Friday, Alabama State Health Officer Scott Harris pleaded for the public to wear masks, social distance and to get vaccinated. He informed reporters that two mobile morgues have been sent to Mobile and Baldwin counties to handle the increasing numbers of deaths caused by the virus, something that happens only when there is a mass casualty event. “I don’t know how much longer we’re gonna be able to do this”, he said. “There is no room to put all these bodies”.

So far, a 14-member federal medical team has been embedded at the South Baldwin Regional Medical Center and another 20-member team from the U.S. Air Force is to arrive in Dothan this weekend to help there. In addition, an assessment team from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services is expected to arrive at Dale Medical Center in Dale County to determine what can be done to stem the tide of hospitalizations there.

Meanwhile, during the week ending Aug. 21, there were 5,571 confirmed cases among Alabama’s schoolchildren, a 700% increase over the same week last school year. Again, Dr. Harris: “I call on parents in Alabama to please talk to your medical provider about vaccinating your 12 to 17 year old child. It’s crucial that we get those kids vaccinated…. Universal masking by all people in schools, regardless of vaccination status, is also very important… We have been told that somehow our guidance is confusing on this. Our guidance is not confusing. Our guidance is crystal clear. We do not need cases or close contacts in the classroom setting, or we will continue to see these thousands of cases each week like we’ve seen during the past week”.

When I checked in on the ADPH dashboard today, I expected to see a notice informing us that a backlog was responsible for these record-shattering results. Nope. No backlog. No “technical issues”. No excuses. The chickens have come home to roost. To be sure, Alabama is not alone. The 9 states with the highest rates of infection are all located in the Deep South, led by Florida.

But, Alabama has quickly risen to the top of this list. It is what happens when you have fewer vaccinations than El Salvador. Fewer than the Dominican Republic. This is what it looks like when the majority of your population believes the Delta surge is fake. When “individual freedom” is valued more highly than civic duty. Patriotic duty. Christian love. Over and over again. The totals:

8/16 - 2,466

8/17 - 4,023

8/18 - 4,465

8/19 - 4,467

8/20 - 5,526

8/21 - 3,305

8/22 - 3,315

8/23 - 2,588

8/24 - 3,701

8/25 - 4,086

8/26 - 4,998

8/27 - 6,207

8/28 - 5,016