August 26, 2021
The ADPH dashboard was down both Tuesday and Wednesday, so no case data were reported on either day. This morning, ADPH finally updated the daily totals, with 11,142 new cases occurring since Monday. It is unclear if the new report accounts for 2 days (i.e. 5,571 per day) or 3 days, including today (i.e. 3,714 per day). I will assume that the total includes today’s numbers, unless I learn otherwise.
Two weeks ago, the 7-day average for new reported cases in Alabama was 3,470 per day. Then, one week later, the 7-day average climbed to 3,728 per day. Three days ago, the daily average peaked at 3,956. And today, assuming the numbers reported today are accurate (skepticism might be justified given recent “technical issues” at ADPH), the 7-day average has dropped to 3,697, a decline of 6%. The average daily positivity rate is currently 23%, down just a tick from the high of 24% on Monday.
It bears repeating that hospitalizations lag daily cases. It is therefore not surprising that the rate of hospitalizations would continue to rise even if new cases have peaked. Two weeks ago, there were 22.6 patients per reporting hospital. The rate rose to 25.7 per hospital one week ago, and then 26.1 per hospital on Monday. Today, the rate is 27.4 patients per hospital (2,879 patients in 105 reporting hospitals, including 45 children).
There is a deficit of 40 ICU beds in Alabama and over half of all ICU beds in the State are occupied by Covid patients. Huntsville Health System said 43 of the 47 COVID ICU patients at its Madison County hospitals are unvaccinated. Of all the 165 COVID patients in its Madison County facilities, 149 – roughly 90% - are unvaccinated…. and 30 of them are on ventilators. Statewide, 85% of all hospitalized adults are unvaccinated and only 12% are fully vaccinated.
It feels like we have reached a pivotal moment right now with the Delta surge in Alabama. On the one hand, there is precedent in the U.K. and in certain U.S. states, like Missouri and Arkansas, for the Delta variant to plateau at a high level before declining in intensity. As we’ve seen this week, new reported cases could be starting to plateau here in Alabama. On the other hand, the Delta variant has never enjoyed such fertile territory as it has here, just as the school year begins. For example, if Alabama were a country, it’s 37% vaccination rate would fall between El Salvador (39%) and Morocco (37%).
Our neighboring state of Florida offers a compelling comparison. There, more people are contracting Covid, being hospitalized, and dying than at any previous point in the pandemic - 23,314 new cases per day (30% higher than the state’s previous peak in January), and 227 deaths per day, far and away the highest rate ever seen in the United States. Yet, Florida has a much higher vaccination rate than Alabama (51.9%).
Alabama’s hands-off attitude toward masks in schools is not helping the situation, causing mass confusion at the local level. School districts throughout the State opened the year with mask-optional policies, only to switch to mask requirements or even virtual learning after finding their schools exploding with infection. Most school districts in Jefferson County, with the notable exceptions of Vestavia Hills and Trussville, now require masks.
Alabama’s State Health Officer said today that the State has seen 5,571 cases of Covid among schoolchildren during the week ending Aug. 2, compared to just 700 cases at the same time last year - a 700% increase.
Dr. Harris also pointed out that our hospitals have reached the breaking point. With nearly 2,900 confirmed patients, Alabama is just about 100 patients below the high point reached last January. And 89% of those patients are unvaccinated. A second emergency federal Covid team arrived in Dothan, joining the first one that was sent to South Baldwin Regional Medical Center in Foley. It may be just a matter of time before a third federal team, and a fourth, join the battle to treat all the unvaccinated people who are now beating down the doors of our hospitals. The totals:
8/12 - 4,167
8/13 - 3,986
8/15 - 6,992
8/16 - 2,466
8/17 - 4,023
8/18 - 4,465
8/19 - 4,467
8/20 - 5,526
8/21 - 3,305
8/22 - 3,315
8/23 - 2,588
8/26 -11,142