August 24, 2020 - Bad News on State Campuses
Bad News on State Campuses
August 24, 2020
The data and news today suggest that the month-long favorable trends in Alabama may be ending soon. Starting with statewide data, there were 1,650 cases (incl. 975 probables), which is the highest number in two weeks. Although the high “probable” cases likely include catch-up data from the weekend (Thursday was the last day when probables were reported), it’s still a disturbingly high number. The 7-day average of daily new cases had steadily declined from 1,917 on July 19 to a low of 854 last Monday. We now have seen a full week of rising cases.
After watching the hospitalization data improve from August 6 until late last week, that improvement appears to be stalling out. There were 1,149 COVID-19 hospital patients reported today (102 hospitals reporting), a net increase of 81 patients from yesterday. On Friday, there were 1,168 current hospital patients statewide (with 104 hospitals reporting). It is premature to draw firm conclusions of rising hospitalizations from such short-term data, but last week's increase in cases makes a rise in that important statistic a real possibility.
While today’s data gave me a ripple of concern, our two largest universities have generated a torrent. Down on The Plains, Auburn recorded 208 positive cases (including 203 students) for the week ending 8/21, a five-fold increase from the week before. Those results are not yet reflected in the ADPH data. Moreover, the 208 positive cases were reported just this morning and do not reflect the first party weekend during which hundreds of students packed into bars around the Corner.
Meanwhile, University of Alabama President Stuart Bell and Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox held a news conference this morning to announce the closing of all bars, including bar service in restaurants, in the CIty of Tuscaloosa for the next 14 days due to a spike in infections. This announcement comes just two days after the University issued a moratorium on student gatherings and limited access to dormitories and Greek houses. The University’s dashboard indicates that 531 students, faculty and staff have already tested positive since classes began last Wednesday. Dr. Bell stated that 1,000 students will be tested each day for the next 5 days in “locations where geographic spread has been documented” - translation, fraternities & sororities.
Finally, the opening weekend of high school football was also in the spotlight. The weekend prompted the Madison County Commission Chairman to publicly anticipate a spike in infections in a couple of weeks. “If you’ve got a stadium that holds 3,000 and you’ve got 2,999 in that stadium, that’s not acceptable”, he said. Why does that seem so obvious? The totals:
8/11 - 831
8/12 - 935
8/13 - 771
8/14 - 700
8/15 - 1,271
8/16 - 853
8/17 - 571
8/18 - 1,358
8/19 - 1,117
8/20 - 971
8/21 - 1,183
8/22 - 900
8/23 - 528
8/24 - 1,650
Breaking from recent trends, 45 out of the State’s 67 counties reported rising 14-day average positivity rates. Montgomery, Mobile, Madison and Baldwin are among the counties that saw their positivity rates continue to decline.