August 23, 2021
On Saturday, ADPH reported a record-breaking 6,210 new cases in a single day. ADPH later released a notice stating that some of those cases arose from lab reports that ADPH had received, but failed to process, over the prior 2 days ... “due to a technical issue”. As a result, ADPH made significant adjustments to its numbers for 8/19, 8/20 and 8/21, causing the daily totals for 8/19 and 8/20 to go up - to 4,467 and 5,526, respectively - and the daily total for 8/21 to go down - to 3,305. I will make the same adjustments to my daily totals below, even though the CDC dashboard and the NYTimes and Washington Post tracking services all continue to reflect that Alabama had 6,210 new cases on Saturday.
After making these adjustments, it is worth noting that a new single-day case record was indeed established last week, but on a different day - Friday, August 20 (5,526 surpasses the prior record of 5,498, set on January 5). ADPH reported 3,315 more cases on Sunday (tests performed Saturday) and 2,588 cases today (tests performed Sunday). Fewer lab tests are typically processed on weekends, so we might expect daily case counts to rise again tomorrow. The 7-day moving average in Alabama is now 3,956 new cases per day, 93% of the January peak of 4,280 cases per day.
As for hospitalizations, ADPH reported there are 2,762 patients in 106 reporting hospitals throughout the State, or 26.1 patients per hospital. The rate of hospitalizations has been relatively level for the last 8 days. On August 15, the rate was 25.7 patients per reporting hospital. This could be a hopeful sign that the rate is peaking … or it might just be a momentary pause before hospitalizations head higher. It also could reflect that some Alabama hospitals are full and are being forced to turn patients away. Stay tuned.
In light of the accelerating pace of the Delta surge, I may start writing more frequently. Today marks an important milestone - namely, the announcement by the FDA of full regulatory approval of Pfizer’s vaccine for people aged 16 and older (emergency use still authorized for children ages 12-15). Before now, mRNA vaccines had received emergency use authorization, providing a convenient excuse for some people to refuse them. Final approval is likely to spur a new wave of vaccine mandates from corporate America. United Airlines, Disney, Walmart, Microsoft, Google and Facebook have already announced plans to do so and that is just the beginning. This morning, the Pentagon announced it is moving ahead with plans to require all active-duty troops to be vaccinated in early September.
Full FDA approval may also mean big changes in terms of vaccine requirements for staff and students in schools. In all 50 states, at least 5 routine childhood vaccines, all with full FDA approval, are typically required for children attending childcare or school, including diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus, chickenpox and polio. When full approval is extended to children under the age of 16, most schools can be expected to add Covid to the list of viruses requiring vaccination.
News of final FDA approval also paves the way for booster shots to become available to Americans, starting the week of September 20. As the Delta surge accelerates and breakthrough infections mount, booster shots are increasingly seen as vital. One CDC study found that the efficacy of vaccines has declined for nursing home residents from 75% in March through May, to 53% in June and July. As a result, the CDC now recommends Pfizer and Moderna booster shots 8 months after the date of the second vaccine dose. The CDC is awaiting additional data before making a determination on booster shots for the one-dose J&J vaccine.
For the 52% of Alabamians who have yet to get a single dose of vaccine, the notion of a booster shot may seem irrelevant (48% of all Alabamians have received one dose and 36% are fully vaccinated). If you were to get your first Pfizer or Moderna shot tomorrow, it would still be roughly 5-6 weeks before you could enjoy the full protection that vaccination affords. In the meantime, your only meaningful protection from the virus stems from wearing a mask and observing appropriate social distances. If you must be admitted to a hospital with Covid, it’s too late for a vaccine and it might be too late for monoclonal antibodies, too. The totals:
8/9 - 4,877
8/10 - 3,815
8/11 - 3,851
8/12 - 4,167
8/13 - 3,986
8/15 - 6,992
8/16 - 2,466
8/17 - 4,023
8/18 - 4,465
8/19 - 4,467
8/20 - 5,526
8/21 - 3,305
8/22 - 3,315
8/23 - 2,588