August 23, 2020 - Convalescent Plasma
Convalescent Plasma
August 23, 2020
Alabama’s daily case count has been bouncing around a lot lately with no discernible trend over the last two weeks. The report today is 528 cases (none listed as probables), which is a return to the low 500’s where it stood last Monday. If this number is not revised later today, then it’s a hopeful sign. On the other hand, there were only 5,380 tests reported, so the single day positivity rate is just under 10%. The 7-day positivity rate barely budged, rising from 8.85% to 8.88%.
For the second consecutive day, there were no cases listed as “probable”, which is really odd. I can’t recall a time since early June, when ADPH first recognized a distinction between “confirmed” and “probable” cases, that there were no reported probable cases. Data reporting on weekends can be somewhat sketchy, so I’m not concerned.
At the county level, there is a notable improvement in positivity rates. Jefferson County (4.83%) and Shelby County (4.11%) have joined Tuscaloosa (4.22%) and Lee (2.02%) counties with 14-day positivity rates below 5%. With just 30 cases, its lowest since last June, Mobile County’s 14-day rate fell to 5.67% and Montgomery County’s rate (6.18%) is only slightly higher than that. You may recall that last March, the World Health Organization advised countries not to “open up” until their positivity rate stayed below 5% for 14 consecutive days.
This evening, President Trump is expected to announce emergency FDA authorization of convalescent plasma as a treatment for COVID-19. The FDA was preparing to make the announcement last week but backed off after several top federal officials, including Dr. Fauci, argued that the evidence was still too weak, requiring more analysis of the data.
Convalescent plasma - taken from recently recovered patients - is already widely available and has been used by 70,000 patients across the country. Emergency authorization would increase access to the treatment - and allow plasma manufacturers to recoup their costs. Dr. Scott Gottlieb, the 2nd and longest-serving of 5 FDA Administrators appointed by Trump, characterized the expected announcement as an “incremental step”, but “not a game changer”, in the treatment of COVID-19. Now for the totals:
8/10 - 1,686
8/11 - 831
8/12 - 935
8/13 - 771
8/14 - 700
8/15 - 1,271
8/16 - 853
8/17 - 571
8/18 - 1,358
8/19 - 1,117
8/20 - 971
8/21 - 1,183
8/22 - 900
8/23 - 528
The Wiregrass counties in the southeastern corner of the State reported case totals that were within the range of their normal daily cases, so yesterday’s spike must have been a reporting anomaly involving catch-up data.