August 20,2022 - BA.4.6

BA.4.6

August 20, 2022

Covid-19 defied expectations in Alabama again this week. After two consecutive weeks of declining reported cases, they rose by 8% during the last 7 days. Alabama’s 7-day average of new reported cases climbed to 2,072 per day, which translates to 42 cases per 100K population. Only three states - Kentucky, South Dakota and West Virginia - have more new cases per capita than Alabama, while only 4 states experienced a sharper increase over the past week. Every one of 11 Deep South states now has a per capita rate of infection that ranks among the top 20 in the nation.

There are currently 777 statewide hospital patients, a 3% decline from last week. Six states - Delaware, West Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Georgia and Kentucky - have a higher hospitalization rate than Alabama’s 16 patients per 100K.

The dominant variant nationwide continues to be BA.5, which fortunately has proved to be less lethal than prior strains. However, there is a new variant that is gaining traction. It’s called BA.4.6 and it represents the 7th major subvariant of Omicron. BA.4.6 contains a mutation to the spike protein - R346T - which makes the virus harder for our antibodies to recognize, even if we’ve been vaccinated or gotten sick via an earlier strain. It is believed to have a 10% growth advantage over BA.5.

The good news is that BA.4.6 is still an Omicron subvariant, meaning that the Omicron-specific boosters being developed by Pfizer and Moderna should provide some protection. Although breakthrough infections will still occur, these new vaccines are expected to keep people out of the hospital even as the virus continues to mutate.

So far, the BA.4.6 hotspots include some parts of Australia and the U.S. Midwest. BA.4.6 accounts for around 4% of new cases in the U.S, Canada and the United Kingdom but that number is likely to grow. The emergence of BA.4.6 may be a harbinger of the future. As immunities from vaccines and past infection work to reduce hospitalizations and deaths, Omicron’s offspring - a succession of subvariants - will arise and become dominant, one after the other. It’s a cat-and-mouse game that may play out indefinitely as the virus fights for survival. The totals:

8/6 - 2,022

8/7 - not reporting

8/8 - 1,928

8/9 - 2,735

8/10- not reporting

8/11 - 4,529

8/12 - 2,186

8/13 - not reporting

8/14 - not reporting

8/15 - 2,457

8/16 - 2,297

8/17 - 2,617

8/18 - 2,519

8/19 - 2,570