August 20,2020 - Nothing About It Is Normal
Nothing About It Is Normal
August 20, 2020
In the blizzard of COVID-19 statistics that have become a staple of our daily lives, it is tempting to begin normalizing a statistic as basic as deaths. The primary motivation for my daily posts over the last 112 days has been to try and prevent such normalization from setting in. For instance, yesterday’s death tally was typical of every other day for months and yet, there is nothing “normal” about it:
Italy - 7
France - 17
Japan - 13
Canada - 4
United Kingdom - 16
Germany - 9
United States - 1,263
Population of countries above (excluding U.S.) - 441,707,193
Population of the United States - 331,266,944
Like everybody else, I’ve been encouraged by the recent improvement in Alabama’s COVID data. However, I worry about complacency and losing sight of the distance left to go. Today, there were 971 cases (incl. 272 probables), matching almost exactly our daily average of 977. There were also 30 more deaths in our little State of 4.9 million people. That is the same number who died yesterday in France and Japan combined (population ~ 192 million), but it was nowhere near a record for Alabama. In fact, it was just another “normal” day.
I am certainly relieved that our 7-day positivity rate has declined from 21% down to what it is today - 7.33%. Yet, there are 29 states doing better than we are. We will remain on New York State’s quarantine list until our case count falls below 10 per 100,000 population (i.e. 490 daily cases).
I am generally satisfied by our rising testing capacity, as demonstrated by the fact that the 7-day average reached 13,330 tests per day, a new high for the State. Yet, we are still 32nd in the country in per capita tests and are virtually tied with Mississippi in that category. I also wonder if the recent spike in tests is merely a function of the ambitious student reentry program undertaken by the University of Alabama.
I am downright optimistic after seeing our current hospitalizations drop to 1,105 today, a decline from 1,201 yesterday. This is the trend you want to see after watching the case count fall sharply in recent days. Yet, only 97 hospitals filed their reports with ADPH, which makes me wonder how many patients there are in the 10-12 hospitals that did not report.
This is encouraging but I’m sorry if I do not sound euphoric. We Alabamians are accustomed to being on the bottom of a lot of lists, so I admit to feeling smug satisfaction for doing better than Florida, Texas and Georgia (which leads the nation this week in per capita increase in cases). Yet, I am uneasy that our good streak will last (especially after witnessing the photos of Bid Day at our flagship university).
And, of course, I hope never to reach the point when I will accept 30 deaths as “normal”. The totals:
8/7 - 1,709
8/8 - 1,872
8/9 - 1,161
8/10 - 1,686
8/11 - 831
8/12 - 935
8/13 - 771
8/14 - 700
8/15 - 1,271
8/16 - 853
8/17 - 571
8/18 - 1,358
8/19 - 1,117
8/20 - 971