August 2, 2020 - Breaking Bad
Breaking Bad
August 2, 2020
It is as predictable as it is tragic. With sorrow, I must report that we are back over 2,000 daily cases again (2,095 to be exact, including 64 probables). The 7-day average of new cases rose by 8.6% - from 1,602 to 1,739. For the 4th day in a row, our daily total exceeded the 7-day average, which means the outbreak is only getting worse. There were also 24 deaths (incl. 1 probable), which causes the 7-day death rate to stand at 21.
Why would I say this was predictable? After all, weren’t cases in a downward trajectory during the last week of July, declining by 6.8% compared to two weeks earlier? As I pointed out yesterday, the late-July decline in cases was an illusion because it was fueled by a 14.6% decline in tests over the same period. The time to celebrate is when cases are going down at the same time testing is going up. The reverse is also true, The time to hunker down is when cases are going up at the same time tests are level or decline. That appears to be where we are heading now.
There were 8,635 tests reported today and the 7-day average of tests rose by a measly 1.2% to 7,956. Back in mid-July, when daily new cases reached their peak (1,851 on July 19), so did daily new tests - reaching their peak 7-day average of 11,775 on July 16. Contrast that relationship between cases and tests with what it is today - average daily cases = 1,739 but average daily tests = only 7,956. That is the worst of all worlds. Or as Dr. Ashish Jha, Director of Harvard’s Global Health Institute said yesterday, “When cases are rising and tests are falling, that is a recipe for disaster”.
And disaster it is. Our weekly positivity rate rose to 21.6% today, a brand new record for our State. Yesterday, Mississippi had the nation's highest positivity rate at 21.3%. I don’t know about our western neighbor but Alabama might have the highest positivity rate in the nation today. That is not surprising when you consider that Alabama has the 7th highest per capita cases in the nation but only the country’s 35th highest per capita test count. No other state has a gap separating those two rankings anywhere near as wide as ours.
Believe me - it gives me no pleasure to deliver this news. I love this State. I have lived here virtually my entire life and there is no place I’d rather live. But facts are facts. We can do better than this. Masks and physical distancing are the only tools we have now. According to a U. of Washington researcher, the U.S. is close to 55% compliant with mask-wearing, much lower than most countries. Our State is likely below the national average. As Bryan Cranston, star of Breaking Bad, said after getting COVID: “Keep wearing the damn mask.” Here are the totals:
7/20 - 1,880
7/21 - 1,467
7/22 - 1,455
7/23 - 2,399
7/24 - 1,793
7/25 - 2,125
7/26 - 1,164
7/27 - 1,821
7/28 - 1,251
7/29 - 1,416
7/30 - 1,980
7/31 - 1,961
8/1 - 1,646
8/2 - 2,095